When he was running for president, Donald J. Trump promised an economic revival like nothing America had ever seen. Just eight weeks into his presidency, however, there’s a noticeable shift in his tone. Now, he won’t entirely dismiss the possibility of a recession. This is a stark contrast for someone who captured voters’ imaginations with promises of making America prosperous again, especially amidst widespread economic unease.
The change in rhetoric comes at a time when the stock market is experiencing a downturn—the S&P 500 dropped 2.7% on Monday, following a 3.1% decline the previous week. Business leaders are worried due to uncertainties brought by Trump’s tariffs, and even some Republicans are cautiously speaking out against these trade barriers, despite potential backlash.
This situation highlights a significant challenge for Trump: a natural-born showman facing the complex realities of governance. The economy Trump walked into was performing well by various measures—unemployment was low, growth was steady, and inflation, while above the Federal Reserve’s ideal, had significantly decreased. Yet, the uncertainty injected by Trump’s policies stands in stark contrast to the confident imagery he projected during his campaign.
Trump’s past declarations promised nothing short of a booming era. “We’re entering a new age of soaring incomes,” he proclaimed last October, forecasting surging wealth, millions of new jobs, and a thriving middle class. However, the promise of an economic upswing has run into conflict with his preferred policy tool: tariffs. These trade barriers, pledged during his campaign, are now seen by economists as a major factor in the country’s murky economic outlook. Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs now suggest a higher likelihood of recession within the next year due to these tariffs.
Rather than sticking to his rosy forecasts, Trump seems to be recalibrating expectations. During a Fox News interview, Trump was non-committal when asked by Maria Bartiromo about the potential for a recession this year. “I hate to predict things like that,” he commented, framing the tariffs as part of a “transition” aimed at restoring wealth to America.
Addressing Congress recently, Trump acknowledged the “little disturbance” his tariffs could cause but brushed it off as minimal.
Despite the market turbulence and growing voices of dissent from both world leaders and business executives, Trump remains undeterred in his tariff strategy. Last week, he imposed wide-ranging tariffs on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China and is prepared to continue this approach. Though known for sometimes abrupt policy shifts, there’s a possibility he might reconsider some of these tariffs in the future.
“Our country has been taken advantage of for decades, and we’re putting a stop to that,” Trump asserted on Fox News.
Keeping a close watch on the stock market, Trump used to highlight its growth as evidence of his success during his first term. Many business leaders initially supported Trump’s campaign, expecting him to prioritize economic needs, but now some are voicing concerns over the negative impact of his tariffs. Trump could hear these grievances directly when he meets with the Business Roundtable’s top executives soon.
As the stock market experienced its worst day since December, White House officials tried to steer the conversation elsewhere.
“Industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s ‘America First’ economic policies—including tariffs, deregulation, and boosting American energy—with massive investment commitments that promise thousands of new jobs,” stated White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “President Trump delivered record-breaking job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and he’s on course to do it again.”
In recent days, Trump’s top aides have been working to calm markets and business leaders. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reassured over the weekend that a recession is “not a chance,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a “natural adjustment” as the economy undergoes a “detox” from reliance on government spending.
Kate Kalutkiewicz of McLarty Associates remarked that the president and his team’s intensified outreach shows they’re feeling the pressure from key influencers—the stock market, Republican lawmakers, and business leaders.
Stephen Moore, from the Heritage Foundation and a former adviser to Trump, commented on the president’s timing, pointing out that tariffs should have been held off until tax cuts were passed.
“Let’s prioritize rejuvenating the economy first, then talk tariffs,” Moore suggested.
Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, criticized Trump’s tariff strategy, labeling it as harmful to the U.S. economy. “The chaos they unleash ties our economy like an anchor, pulling more American workers under the longer it continues,” he argued.
The big question in Washington now is how long Trump can endure a sagging stock market and its accompanying negative media attention.
“That’s unclear,” Moore reflected. “The president likely has concerns about the stock market’s recent losses, as we all do.”
