Last weekend, President Trump decided to launch military strikes against the Houthi militia in Yemen, citing their attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea as damaging to global trade. “These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and world economy billions, jeopardizing innocent lives in the process,” he remarked on Truth Social.
However, persuading shipping companies to resume their routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal won’t be a quick fix. The solution extends beyond mere airstrikes against the Houthis. For over a year, shipping lines have largely steered clear of the Red Sea, opting instead to navigate around Africa’s southern tip. This alternative route adds approximately 3,500 nautical miles and ten extra days to travel from Asia to Europe.
The shipping industry has managed to adapt to these disruptions. In fact, many have capitalized on higher shipping rates since the Houthis began targeting commercial ships in late 2023, in support of Hamas during its conflict with Israel.
Shipping leaders have expressed that their return to the Red Sea hinges on either a comprehensive Middle Eastern peace agreement involving the Houthis or a significant weakening of the militia, which is supported by Iran. Vincent Clerc, Maersk’s CEO, stated in February, “It’s either a full degradation of their capabilities or there’s some type of deal.”
After the recent U.S. strikes, Maersk announced it was still not prepared to head back. A company spokesman emphasized, “Prioritizing crew safety and the predictability of the supply chain, we will continue to circumvent Africa until a more secure passage is assured.” Likewise, MSC, another major shipping line, confirmed it would maintain this alternative route to protect both their crew and service reliability.
The timeline for a definitive American intervention against the Houthis remains uncertain. Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich of the Joint Staff noted the latest military actions targeted more broadly than those conducted during the Biden administration. However, he expressed skepticism about the Houthis’ capabilities.
Middle East analysts argue that the Houthis have demonstrated resilience against more substantial forces and operate with a level of independence from Iranian influence. Jack Kennedy, a Middle East risk expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence, pointed out, “A military solution alone, especially one reliant on airstrikes, is unlikely to sufficiently deter the Houthis in a lasting way.”
Though the Houthis reduced their attacks on commercial vessels after Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire in January, major shipping lines remain hesitant to return to the Red Sea. In February, while around 200 container ships traversed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the southern Red Sea entrance and frequent Houthi target—this was still far less than the more than 500 that passed through prior to the violence, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Most significant shipping lines, except for France’s CMA CGM, which has maintained a minimal presence, continue to avoid the Red Sea. Attempts to reach CMA CGM for comment were unsuccessful.
One reason ships aren’t in a hurry to come back is the concern that sudden, costly re-routing might become necessary if conditions in the Red Sea worsen again. Despite the inconvenience and added costs, the detour around Africa has actually bolstered profits for shipping companies.
During the pandemic’s surge in global trade, companies ordered many new freighters. Traditionally, an increased fleet lowers shipping rates, but bypassing the Red Sea has created a greater need for ships, keeping rates high on major global routes. Recently, Maersk even projected that its earnings would likely improve if the Red Sea pathways reopened later in the year instead of sooner.
Nevertheless, shipping rates from Asia to Northern Europe have dropped to their lowest since 2023, according to Freightos, a digital shipping platform. Rico Luman, an ING Research senior economist, explained that early-year shipping volumes typically decline. He added that the spike in imports to the U.S., driven by Trump’s tariffs, is nearing its end, and companies might scale back orders anticipating a downturn in consumer demand ahead.
