Friedrich Merz, who heads Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is known for his straightforwardness. On Sunday night, as it became evident that his party emerged victorious in the snap election following outgoing Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s departure, Merz stayed true to form. During a post-election TV discussion, he declared, “For me, the top priority will be to bolster Europe swiftly so we can gradually achieve genuine independence from the USA.”
Just two weeks ago, such a declaration from a German chancellor-elect would’ve seemed unimaginable. But we’re in unprecedented times. Merz, a staunch supporter of transatlantic ties, had previously downplayed the threats to Western unity posed by Donald Trump. However, with the overt political maneuvering by the US President’s supporters favoring Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) — along with the exclusion of Europe and Kyiv from Ukrainian future negotiations — a dramatic policy shift became necessary.
This shift is promising for the European Union as it endeavors to enhance its strategic autonomy in challenging times. For Ukraine, which is in dire need of a united Europe’s strong support, Merz’s firm commitment offers a glimmer of hope. The EU’s most influential member state showing assertive leadership is crucial in today’s increasingly turbulent global arena.
Domestically, though, the outlook appears less rosy. Merz admitted on Monday that the recent election highlighted a deeply divided nation. The political center is historically weak as the far right gains momentum, particularly in the east. With a high voter turnout, the AfD doubled its share to 21%. Meanwhile, the combined result for the CDU and its Bavarian affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU), was 29% — the second lowest since 1949. The Social Democrats (SPD) faced their most dismal postwar outcome, falling to third place with a paltry 16%.
Merz is committed to maintaining the barrier that prevents the far right from gaining power. The current Bundestag composition suggests a two-party coalition with the SPD is in the works. This could mean a welcome moderation of the CDU’s attempts to mimic AfD’s stance on immigration. Instead of continuing to mimic the far right, Merz should steer Germany’s economy in a different direction.
In the 1990s, Merz found fame as a proponent of small government and free markets akin to Ronald Reagan. But as chancellor, he’ll inherit a stagnating economy desperately in need of significant government spending, even as the pressure to increase defense expenditure grows. Germany’s old economic model — reliant on cheap Russian energy and Chinese export demands — is defunct. Revamping it might necessitate pushing for constitutional reforms to enable more state borrowing and spending — a tough sell for many in Merz’s party.
Alarmingly, one in five German voters cast their ballots for a party favoring forced migrant repatriation and has flirted with neo-Nazi-coded rhetoric. The AfD garnered notable support among the young and non-graduates. Beyond the barricade, their leader, Alice Weidel, could position herself as heading a Trump-like government-in-waiting. It’s crucial for the next administration to work on restoring faith in Germany’s postwar legacy of consensus-building and moderation. The stakes have seldom been higher.
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