Donald Trump’s return to the White House is stirring up more anxiety among U.S. allies and partners than it is for its rivals. While China isn’t thrilled about engaging in a trade war with the U.S., it seems to have braced itself better than others for Trump’s tariffs. Both nations are leaving a window open for a possible resolution. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, is expected to face tougher challenges, yet this new chapter in Trump’s presidency is presenting China with both hurdles and prospects.
During his previous term, the global respect for the U.S. took a nosedive. Now, as Trump tightens his stance on long-standing allies, China is positioning itself to seize any resultant opportunities. Colombia swiftly acquiesced to Trump regarding the issue of returning migrants, while China’s ambassador has been celebrating an era he describes as the “best moment” in the relationship between Bogotá and Beijing. Meanwhile, Panama announced, under pressure from the Trump administration, that it would let its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative lapse. However, U.S. maneuverings behind closed doors had already started nudging Panama back towards American influence. Trump’s tendencies to coerce and demean other nations might come around to haunt him, not only in Panama but throughout the region.
Trump may meet greater resistance as he turns his focus beyond the Americas, particularly in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Historically, the U.S. hasn’t shied away from showcasing its might, fortifying its global leadership through trade, aid, and military alliances. That dynamic seems to be shifting. Trump’s decision to cut off aid to South Africa could thrill someone like Elon Musk, yet it needlessly isolates a significant middle power. His brazen announcement to expand U.S. territories, even resorting to military means if required, highlights his disregard for international laws, further echoed in his command to stop enforcing American statutes against bribery of foreign officials.
China stands to gain by offsetting some repercussions from the U.S. halting aid, as it already finances at least one impacted organization. Yet, their strategy leans more towards loans and infrastructure rather than fostering partnerships with local entities. Historically, China doesn’t appear inclined to fill the void left by the U.S. financial withdrawal.
While many are wary of Beijing’s engagement strategies, several nations might feel they have to hedge their bets. It’s likely that China will make strides within multilateral organizations and with middle-income countries, which tend to hold a more favorable view of China compared to wealthier nations.
A pivotal moment unfolded when Mr. Vance harshly criticized European leaders at the Munich Security Conference, aligning himself with the hard right. Rather than extending an olive branch, Beijing appointed a contentious “wolf warrior” diplomat as its representative for European matters. Lu Shaye ruffled feathers by questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet territories and Ukraine’s over Crimea during his tenure as ambassador to France. As the tug-of-war between the U.S. and China intensifies, countries might find themselves feeling squeezed rather than courted by either side.
China has rapidly ascended the global ranks faster than anticipated, all while observing the U.S. lose its grip much quicker than expected. For China, which prefers a multipolar world over one dominated by universal values, this scenario is promising. However, the critical question is not solely about how others respond to China’s rising influence, but also if China, often criticized for being a security freeloader, may be forced to take on roles it had hoped to avoid, or manage the void should it choose not to.
