When a government holds a working majority as substantial as Labour’s, coupled with potentially four more years in office, an early byelection might seem like a minor hiccup. Yet, the upcoming byelection in Runcorn and Helsby carries quite a bit of weight. This event marks the first significant electoral challenge for Sir Keir Starmer’s administration and could end up being one of its pivotal political moments.
As the byelection nears, Labour finds itself on the defensive. The party struggles in the polls, with Sir Keir’s approval ratings faltering, and only 19% of the public currently approving of the government’s performance. Scheduled to coincide with local elections on the symbolic date of May 1, the byelection will occur after a government spring economic statement expected to reveal grim financial forecasts, unpopular spending cuts, and intense internal strife.
The circumstances prompting the byelection only intensify Labour’s challenges. Last July, Mike Amesbury secured the seat for Labour. However, by October, he was caught on film punching a constituent on a street in Frodsham. Charged with assault, he admitted guilt and received a 10-week suspended sentence after an appeal. This conviction initiated a recall petition for the Cheshire constituency, though Amesbury has since resigned, pre-empting the recall.
Under ordinary conditions, Labour might not struggle too much to retain the seat, even considering these troubling circumstances. Runcorn and Helsby stands as Labour’s 49th safest seat in the UK (of the 411 won last year). Amesbury captured 53% of the vote in 2024, boasting a 35-point lead over his nearest competitor. Labour could endure a voting dip and still maintain control.
However, Labour faces bright red warning signals as the byelection approaches. Back in 2024, Reform UK came in second here, with the Conservatives trailing in third, labeling this as one of the 89 seats where Reform UK is now Labour’s primary opponent. Normally, Runcorn and Helsby wouldn’t rank high on Reform UK’s target list of those 89 constituencies. Yet, it has captured the spotlight now, and both parties are well aware of this. Polls in the constituency indicate Reform UK is leading.
Labour isn’t alone in dealing with issues. Reform UK is having a tumultuous 2025 themselves. Nigel Farage has faced embarrassment due to Donald Trump’s pro-Russia stance regarding Ukraine. The conflict between Farage and Rupert Lowe has unveiled significant political divisions. A split may be impending, with Lowe potentially aligning with far-right activist Tommy Robinson, spurred by encouragement from Elon Musk. None of these developments are likely to ease Reform UK’s challenges.
Predicting how all this will influence voters in Runcorn and Helsby by May Day is tough. The contest is also tricky for the third-place Conservatives, who are internally torn over Reform UK and struggling under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens, trailing in fourth and fifth place last July, face challenging strategic decisions too. All these factors guarantee a fierce battle, which is already heating up.
Even a slight Labour victory would bolster Sir Keir, diminish Reform UK’s momentum, and provide some relief to Mrs. Badenoch. Conversely, a win for Reform UK could wreak havoc in both Labour and Conservative camps, confirming Farage as a significant threat but causing division within both parties on how to counter it, potentially spurring leadership debates. One thing is certain: the outcome will have profound implications. That late-night altercation in Frodsham might very well reshape the landscape of British politics.
