Setting expectations for a meeting with no clear historical guide is a tricky endeavor. British prime ministers have made trips to the White House in various geopolitical climates, yet never under a U.S. administration seemingly less supportive of the transatlantic bond. Unprecedentedly, U.S. foreign policy appears more aligned with Moscow than London regarding European security.
Sir Keir Starmer faces a unique challenge in dealing with Donald Trump, where the usual praise about the “special relationship” and shared values holds little sway. Historical ties cannot be ignored, but when dealing with critical issues like the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Mr. Trump’s approach veers more toward the demanding tactics of a mob leader rather than that of a diplomatic leader. His strategy involves leveraging protection for compliance.
Sir Keir must interact with the U.S. president within this framework while encouraging a broader perspective on U.S. interests in NATO and the security of European democracies. His recent commitment to boost the UK’s defense budget, albeit at the regrettable cost of reallocating funds from overseas aid, represents a strategic move in this negotiation.
Trump’s skepticism about NATO arises from the perception that Europeans rely too heavily on U.S. military resources, a view shared by some prior U.S. leaders. Presenting the UK as a proactive partner willing to contribute its fair share could foster a more productive dialogue about Ukraine’s path forward. Sir Keir also aims to echo French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent message to Washington, emphasizing the untrustworthy nature of any agreement with Russia lacking strong deterrents against further aggression.
To influence Trump, the argument must highlight American strength and appeal to Trump’s desire for personal acclaim. He needs to clearly see the advantages in choosing sustainable solutions over hastily brokering agreements with Vladimir Putin that compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty.
In his discussions with Trump, Sir Keir can underscore that lasting American prestige and business prospects depend on sustainable agreements, which, at least for the near future, require security assurances for Ukraine that Europe alone can’t yet offer. It’s crucial to find common ground between UK interests and Trump’s personal pride.
Negotiating with Trump involves navigating a complex and sometimes murky political landscape. The president is known for unreliable statements and doesn’t take kindly to opposition. While aiming to avoid provoking Trump, Sir Keir must still counter misinformation and stand his ground on key issues. He has already countered Trump’s incorrect portrayal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator” and Russia’s denial of accountability for the war. Such truths might be diplomatically conveyed from Downing Street, but face-to-face at the White House requires exceptional tact.
Sir Keir must be clear-eyed about the evolving risks posed by current U.S. foreign policy. Realism here isn’t synonymous with bending to Trump’s whims. The UK has both ethical and strategic reasons to ensure facts are the foundation of global diplomacy. Engaging honestly and firmly with a superpower that seems off-track is an essential component of the prime minister’s role, both publicly and privately.
