Hope feels incredibly fragile and often seems insufficient. The long-awaited moment, though anticipated with joy, also brings fear and anxiety among Palestinians in the devastated Gaza and the families of Israeli hostages who have suffered immense trauma.
After more than 15 months of relentless conflict, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands and leaving nearly 2 million people struggling, the United States and Qatar have announced a significant breakthrough: a ceasefire and a deal for the release of hostages. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged some “unresolved clauses,” his cabinet is expected to vote in favor of it on Thursday morning. It’s imperative they approve it. The main elements of this deal have been apparent for some time, and the cost of delaying any further is devastating. Since discussions began, countless more Palestinians and an unknown number of Israeli hostages taken in the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, have been lost. Recent research, published in the Lancet medical journal, indicates that the death toll reported by Gazan health officials was underestimated by 40%, suggesting approximately 64,260 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli forces by last June.
This amplifies the urgency to welcome, implement, and build upon any agreement reached. The upcoming transition in U.S. leadership from Joe Biden to Donald Trump next Monday added the necessary urgency. Netanyahu, who has been trying to delay both a political reckoning for the events of October 7 and his corruption charges, eagerly awaits Trump’s return. Reports suggest Trump applied pressure on the Israeli leader, as he did not want to step into his new term with the conflict ongoing. In turn, Hamas did not wish to wait and risk a worse outcome.
Though Trump swiftly took credit for the progress, it highlights more Biden’s shortcomings than Trump’s diplomacy—and serves as a reminder that Netanyahu and the Israeli right anticipate future benefits from Trump’s leadership. Changing dynamics in domestic politics have shifted Netanyahu’s priorities, diminishing his concerns over threats to resign from Itamar Ben-Gvir, an extremist coalition ally who had previously blocked attempts at reaching a deal—making Netanyahu’s past complaints about Hamas more questionable.
The agreement reportedly outlines a gradual release process, involving 33 Israeli hostages—including children, women, the elderly, and the sick—and up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. This also includes a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in an initial phase lasting several weeks. There’s hope for a significant increase in desperately needed aid, with possibly 600 trucks a day—a substantial rise but still insufficient. Even with these improvements, Israel intends to end its cooperation with Unrwa, the UN agency crucial in delivering aid to Palestinians, within days, raising concerns about future aid distribution.
After 16 days, talks are set to commence on a second phase, which may involve returning more hostages in exchange for a full Israeli military withdrawal. However, there are clear challenges with this plan. The ceasefire might not hold, reminiscent of the failed deal in November 2023. Negotiating phase two will be immensely challenging, and there’s no consensus on the future governance of Gaza.
Last May, the UN estimated reconstructing Gaza would require $40 billion and 16 years. Since then, further destruction has ensued. Any tentative relief is overshadowed by past suffering and fears for what lies ahead. Yet, amid such desperation, any deal represents progress that needs to be seized and expanded upon.
