In 2024, a significant political struggle began to emerge, but rather than being centered in Westminster, it unfolded in places like Grangemouth in Scotland, Port Talbot in Wales, and Luton in England. These stories may not have dominated headlines, but their impact was undeniable, affecting not only local communities but also national and economic landscapes.
Grangemouth, home to Scotland’s only oil refinery, faced a major transformation when its owners announced in September that it would close, to be replaced by a facility importing fuel, resulting in nearly 400 job losses. Meanwhile, by the end of September, Port Talbot saw the shutdown of its last operational blast furnace as part of a restructuring plan, risking the employment of 2,800 people. Similarly, Vauxhall in Luton revealed in late November that the plant would close, severing a 120-year link with the town and jeopardizing between 1,100 and 2,000 jobs. This announcement sparked two days of protests a week before Christmas.
These developments highlight the challenges faced by industries rooted in oil, steel, and automotive manufacturing—cornerstones of what could be called the traditional fossil economy. John Vaillant’s recent book, “Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World,” captures the essence of our reliance on these industries, illustrating the staggering volume of ancient plant material required for a tank of gas. As governments worldwide aspire to a “just transition,” ensuring workers from fossil industries find opportunities in the emerging green economy, leaders like Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer have presented visions of the UK leading in this new era. Yet, the disruptions seen from Luton to Grangemouth underscore the rocky road ahead.
The closure of Vauxhall was attributed by its owner to government mandates on electric vehicle targets, framing it as a response to regulatory pressure. However, Luton’s decline began long before discussions of net zero, highlighting the political complexity of the situation. Politicians play a tricky role by accelerating the end of fossil industries while promising bright futures they aim to replace them with. Sir Keir, on his first trip to Scotland as prime minister, labeled Grangemouth a “real priority,” yet such words didn’t translate into tangible outcomes. Mr. Johnson’s dream of transforming the UK into a “Saudi Arabia of wind power” seems distant, as the nation possesses only two facilities for making wind turbine blades, whereas Denmark, across the North Sea, boasts the world’s leading wind-power industry.
The intricacies of these political dynamics are all too recognizable: each closure and job loss fuels arguments from the right that dismiss net zero as an overzealous pursuit. In Port Talbot, despite plans for an electrified future, local voices note that Asian nations are still constructing traditional blast furnaces. It rests on Labour and like-minded advocates of a just transition to increase the investment and urgency behind these shifts. Failing this, rising local unemployment could lead to societal distress and fuel resentment, which reactionary groups might exploit. The challenge is daunting and requires careful navigation.
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