You might be surprised to find out, just by glancing at grocery aisle prices, that Thanksgiving dinner is actually more budget-friendly now than it has been in recent years. According to a survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, this year’s holiday meal is estimated to cost $58.08 for a gathering of 10, which breaks down to just $5.81 per person. This reflects a 5% decrease compared to last year and is the lowest it has been since 2021. And if you take inflation into account, the news gets even better.
The authors of the survey highlight an interesting point: “Adjusting for inflation, if consumers had the same purchasing power as in 1984, this Thanksgiving would be the most affordable ever in the 39-year history of the survey, with the exception of 2020.”
However, not everyone seems to feel the relief. The post-pandemic economic recovery, along with the upcoming 2024 elections, highlights a disconnect between Americans’ negative perceptions of the economy and its robust underpinnings. Many shoppers are naturally focused on the nominal prices of goods rather than their inflation-adjusted, or “real,” costs. Real costs provide a clearer picture of affordability, including often-overlooked factors like wage inflation.
Interestingly, while the AFBF notes a 19% rise in Thanksgiving food prices since 2019, federal data shows median household wages have increased by about 25% over the same period.
Moreover, the report points out, “The average American needs to work fewer hours now to afford the same meal compared to previous years.” Following the COVID-19 pandemic, wages have outpaced inflation, with an average wage growth of 4% from 2023 to 2024. Consequently, the time spent working to cover this year’s Thanksgiving meal has decreased by 9%.
That said, wage increases haven’t benefitted everyone equally, and long-term costs like housing and child care still pressure many families. While consumer confidence has recently improved, it’s still below what it was before the pandemic began.
Still, the AFBF’s findings reveal that “even if the dollar’s purchasing power is diminishing, some items in our basket are at their lowest historic prices when considering ‘current dollar’ costs.”
For instance, turkey prices have dropped by 6% since last year, despite the disruptions bird flu has caused in turkey supplies. Though typically, such shortages lead to price hikes, a decrease in per-person turkey consumption by a pound each year has been enough to counteract the limited supply.
Processed foods often seen on Thanksgiving tables have seen some price hikes. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing, for example, are both about 8% pricier than last year. On the other hand, sweet potatoes and whole milk have recorded significant price drops, decreasing by 26% and 14% respectively. And while fresh cranberry prices have risen by 12%, reversing an 18% decline from the previous year, they’re still at their lowest level since 2015. Adjusted for inflation, they match the 1987 prices according to the report.
For shoppers mindful of inflation, these affordability improvements are welcome news. Many brands have been courting value-focused consumers with price cuts and promotions. Major retailers like Walmart and TJ Maxx are faring better in attracting customers than others, such as Target. As the holiday season nears, the race for discounts grows more intense, and grocery stores are part of it. Last month, the price of food eaten at home was just 1.1% higher compared to the previous year, unlike the 2.6% rise in overall consumer prices.
Both Target and Aldi have unveiled Thanksgiving deals priced lower than last year. For example, Target’s $20 meal for four includes a small turkey, canned veggies, and stuffing mix. Meanwhile, Aldi’s $47 package feeds 10, and is advertised as being cheaper than in 2019. Walmart offers an “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal for eight with 29 items for $56. Amazon Fresh also has discounts on turkey, sides, and desserts for six people at less than $5 each, with extra savings for Prime members.
Experts suggest these promotions present ample opportunities for smart shopping. Robin Wenzel from Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute advises consumers to examine what these meal deals include. “Don’t hesitate to shop around at multiple retailers,” Wenzel suggests.
Some Thanksgiving packages might come with more ingredients, which could mean more cooking, whereas others have fewer items but require less preparation. “Thanksgiving is very personal for many families,” Wenzel notes, allowing shoppers to tailor their purchases to their gatherings.
To save on costs, consider opting for store-brand products, which could trim $17 off a 10-person meal according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Consumer Reports also recommends joining supermarket loyalty and cash-back programs for additional savings, often with perks like digital coupons in store apps.
Ultimately, the amount spent on Thanksgiving dinner varies by location. As per the AFBF, households in the West, the costliest region for holiday groceries, spend approximately 18% more than those in the South, where groceries are the cheapest.
