As America witnesses the onset of a second Trump administration—viewed either as a new beginning or a grim descent by his opponents—an intriguing conversation has surfaced regarding the broader implications of Trump’s victory. What’s striking this time is the rare consensus emerging about a “vibe shift” in American politics, something not typically seen.
Normally, after an election, the winning party declares a “new era” and the losers often reject this notion, attributing their defeat to poor candidates, flawed strategies, or adverse economic conditions. The longstanding refuge for the defeated has been to claim they simply chose the wrong candidate, not that their ideas or principles were flawed.
In the 2024 election, Trump’s victory was modest, with his electoral college win ranking 44th out of 60 and a slim popular vote margin of 1.5 points. It wasn’t a sweeping landslide. Kamala Harris wasn’t an ideal candidate and had little time for a robust campaign. Joe Biden was grappling with unpopularity and health concerns. Inflation posed a severe challenge to any sitting president. These factors were part of the typical blame game post-election.
Yet, the discussion about the vibe shift goes beyond merely assigning blame. Trump’s “cultural victory” seems “tectonic,” according to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein. He points out several reasons: the right’s dominance on social media, corporations looking to return to the center after leaning left, a backlash against perceived feminization of culture that benefits Trump, and Biden keeping Trump in the spotlight during his presidency.
While these explanations hold some merit, they don’t fully capture the transformative changes prompting progressives to agree a significant shift has occurred. There’s a broader global context as well, with populism and nationalism on the rise in places like Europe, Latin America, and India. Historical moments often witness similar widespread movements, as seen with the global protests of the 1960s. Issues affecting American politics—like the financial crisis, immigration, COVID-19, and inflation—are not confined to the US.
The main driver of this vibe shift, I believe, is how Trump and Trumpism have disrupted a long-standing political consensus across the spectrum.
Before Trump, American conservatism rallied around key principles: limited government, cultural traditionalism, anti-abortion stances, fiscal responsibility, and free-market capitalism. Although the right didn’t always meet these ideals, paying homage to them was the glue holding conservatism together. Nowadays, these commitments receive some lip service, but allegiance to Trump is now the real test, allowing him to adopt left-leaning positions on issues like abortion and economic policy.
As much as I believe this shift has been detrimental to conservatism, it might be even more damaging for the left. Not only did Trump disrupt the right-wing consensus, but he also upended the broader political order. Alternatively, social media and other trends might have acted as catalysts, with Trump capitalizing on the new environment.
Regardless, the fundamental assumptions about political norms and what politicians can or cannot do have changed dramatically. Trump’s actions highlight this shift, but they also reveal that today’s electorate is different. The coalition formed under FDR has dissolved, with the white working class leaning conservative, and Republicans making inroads with Latino and Black working-class voters. The belief that these groups are “natural Democrats” was shattered in this election. Republicans have discovered effective ways to communicate with them.
Meanwhile, progressives immersed in FDR-era class rhetoric or civil rights-era racial and feminist narratives are finding that many of their supporters are no longer receptive to these messages. This sense of disorientation, the feeling that history or demographics might not favor you anymore, is what many describe as a “vibe shift.”
