In today’s political landscape, certain groups capture more attention than others. It’s widely believed that the economically left-leaning, socially conservative former Labour supporters from the UK’s “red wall” are now the pivotal players in politics. The narrative insists they must be courted. However, there’s a noticeable lack of focus on another growing cohort: graduates who find themselves facing uncertain futures. This demographic came into the spotlight after the 2010 student protests and has been expanding ever since.
In the UK, nearly 5 million graduates are employed in jobs that don’t require a degree. The once-celebrated graduate premium—the lifetime earning advantage of having a degree—is diminishing significantly. Recent findings from the Resolution Foundation reveal that graduate starting salaries have noticeably declined in real terms over the last twenty years, while the minimum wage has seen a modest increase. Apart from fields like STEM, law, finance, and management, attending university no longer guarantees an upward social trajectory or a better quality of life.
The crumbling of the graduate premium is one piece of a larger puzzle. The traditional British middle-class dream is disintegrating as fresh graduates struggle to become part of it. There’s a diminishing segment—referred to as Mike Savage’s “ordinary elite” or Guy Standing’s “salariat”—who matured during the era when the graduate premium was robust. These individuals enjoy high salaries, own homes, and are shielded from the harsh impacts of policy shifts. Conversely, many young people born post-1980s are caught in a downward spiral of social mobility, experiencing stagnating wages, hefty debts, and high effective tax rates. Today’s graduates are far less likely to have savings or own assets compared to their parents.
Many youths are either crammed into small rental spaces in bustling cities or have returned to their childhood homes, living with their parents. These individuals are slowly recognizing that the career aspirations they once held closely may be nothing more than illusions, leading only to a lifetime of debt and financial hardship.
Historically, when the middle class faces desperation and decline, significant political shifts can occur. This demographic often serves as a stabilizing force in society, and its erosion has heightened political volatility. Phil Burton-Cartledge, a sociology lecturer at the University of Derby, explains how the Conservative party, through its damaging economic policies, has inadvertently undermined its core support, paving the way for its own decline. Labour risks a similar fate if it doesn’t soon change its course.
It’s apparent that some members of the government fail to grasp the realities that drove the youth towards left-wing politics during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. They don’t perceive this group as a key voting bloc, treating them as expendable. However, much like Peter Mandelson’s infamous assertion that Labour could dismiss the working class due to their lack of alternatives, there’s a profound underestimation of a powerful political force. While Reform UK’s appeal to the white working class dominates headlines, the young, socially descending graduates are, in fact, propelling both the rise in Green Party support and the decline of Labour in areas like Bristol.
Ironically, in shedding Corbyn-era graduates, Labour hasn’t won over traditional voters in the red wall regions either. The party risks losing both its longstanding and newfound supporters. In Wales, the closure of iconic sites like the Port Talbot steelworks—where my father and grandfather labored—has resulted in over 2,000 job losses and a collapse in the local economy. The new generation growing up near these remnants of industry can no longer look forward to secure, skilled employment. The Welsh Labour government’s cuts to apprenticeship programs exacerbate this bleak outlook.
With the shift away from industrial capitalism, Britain is now leaning into an economic model centered around finance and rent-seeking rather than manufacturing. This has led to graduates and non-graduates alike working in roles at call centers, Amazon warehouses, or in the hospitality sector—the harsh reality behind Britain’s so-called “knowledge economy.”
These challenges also open the door to political transformation. The World Economic Forum’s recent briefing suggests that if today’s struggling white-collar workers join forces with the blue-collar workers affected by the 1980s and 90s industrial declines, a political revolution may take shape.
For a progressive party willing to tackle these pressing issues, there’s a significant opportunity. However, they need to act swiftly, or else the mounting frustration could be diverted to right-wing movements.
