Whoa, okay, let’s dive into this Mexican Peso thing. It’s like watching a rollercoaster in real time. This week, it’s climbing up at a cool 0.89%, strutting its stuff against the US Dollar. Everyone thought it might stumble, but nah, Mexico’s economy is like, “Surprise, we’re tougher than you think!”
So picture this: Wall Street’s feeling pretty good, even though Trump’s doing his usual dance with China. Like, one minute Beijing’s talking about cutting tariffs, next minute Trump’s all “uh-uh, not budging unless you give me something real juicy.” Classic, right?
Meanwhile, Mexico’s numbers come in all like “Boom, February was good!” INEGI said so, surprising pretty much everyone. But hang on, in the US, folks aren’t feeling it. The University of Michigan’s sentiment thing dropped big time – people are like, “not sure about this economy, kinda anxious here!”
So, the Peso still found some juice, but everyone’s biting their nails over what next week’s GDP numbers will say. Technical recession is lurking in the shadows, ready to pounce if the numbers aren’t pretty.
Banxico, Mexico’s central bank, is being all cool and easy, unlike the Fed, which is on high alert about inflation caused by tariffs. This whole diverging thing is spicy for the USD/MXN pair.
Anyway, Mexican economic activity in February was up 1% month-on-month, faster than expected. But year-on-year, it’s like a seesaw, kinda dipping. And inflation, well, it’s doing a little cha-cha in April.
Banxico’s Omar Mejia says the economy’s been slowing since Q4 2023. Bummer. Over at Citi Mexico, there’s chatter about Banxico maybe cutting rates by 50 basis points soon. Heck, by the end of the year, they think the rate might slide down near 7.75%. The USD/MXN? Folks see it inching up to 20.93 by year’s end.
Diving into the technicalities, the USD/MXN seems kinda like a bear ready to run, especially if it dips under 19.50. Support levels are lurking at 19.46 and psychologically at 19.00. But if buyers rally, they gotta clear 19.93, then eye the 20.00 mark, with gates open to 20.25-20.29, before hitting the 100-day SMA at 20.33.
Whew. And there you have it, a mix of chaos and raw honesty in the world of the Peso. It’s a living, breathing beast of a currency, swaying with market moods, tariffs, and who-knows-what next!
