The excitement around Bitcoin’s rally faces some hurdles as it remains stuck below the $100,000 mark. Analysts at JPMorgan have noted a significant drop in institutional interest across the crypto world, especially with Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts.
## Institutional Interest Waning, Futures Market Reflects Concerns
It’s been the hefty investments from institutional players that fueled Bitcoin’s historic surges, particularly pushing it past the coveted $100,000 threshold. Yet, post this milestone, Bitcoin’s price hasn’t managed to climb further—a clear signal that these big-ticket investors are pulling back.
In recent guidance to clients, JPMorgan analysts corroborated this slowdown. They pointed to notable declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). A disconcerting trend of backwardation has emerged, where the spot price surpasses the futures price.
In a robust market, you’d normally expect futures to be priced above spot prices due to optimistic future growth projections. However, this inversion now hints at a cautious stance from institutional investors, largely due to the absence of short-term bullish signals.
“This development indicates weak demand,” noted Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a JPMorgan analyst, in his client note. “Declining interest from systematic and momentum-driven funds, like CTAs, is dampening Bitcoin and Ethereum futures as well.”
Here’s something to chew on: optimism surrounding pro-crypto reforms under the new Trump administration in the U.S. is dwindling. Any favorable policies or regulations tailored for the crypto realm won’t likely take shape until the latter half of 2025. For now, Bitcoin and its peers are in a holding pattern, with limited upward catalysts and continuous profit-taking.
## Concerns Over Market Manipulation
Adding another layer to this complex narrative are the growing whispers of potential market manipulation within the crypto space. Industry insiders, including Jan3’s CEO Samson Mow, have voiced suspicions that Bitcoin’s struggle to sustain momentum above $100,000 seems somewhat orchestrated.
He suggests that certain major players are selling while retail traders are busy buying incrementally over time—a methodology known as dollar-cost averaging. These types of accusations aren’t new. Bitcoin’s storied past has occasionally been marred by allegations of price manipulation by so-called “whales.” The influx of more institutional investors could indeed make such manipulation more feasible than in previous rounds.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering at $96,180, a dip of 2% over the past day. Should the present trend continue, it might find itself settling around the $100,000 mark in the short run, potentially until late 2025. Despite this, long-term predictions for Bitcoin’s price vary widely, with some experts forecasting anything from $150,000 to a whopping $2 million.
Image courtesy of Sky News; chart sourced from TradingView.
