Imagine Donald Trump as a version of a mafia don—a figure commanding from a position of perceived strength, yet lacking some of the principles upheld by fictional mobsters. Comparing him to a character like Don Corleone can be tricky, partly because Trump himself might find it flattering. Plus, while Corleone embodies a certain strength and alluring toughness, Trump often seems weak, dishing out favors to America’s rivals with little in return. But when rapid changes turn long-term allies into foes overnight, having a metaphorical compass can be helpful. Just as my colleague Luke Harding once called Putin’s Russia a “mafia state,” perhaps it’s time to apply a similar label to the U.S. under Trump’s era.
Consider how the Trump administration operates. It issues threats and warnings that would sound right at home in a classic Sicilian setting. Just this week, Trump hinted that a deal ending Russia’s aggression in Ukraine could be reached quickly, but ominously added, “if someone doesn’t want to make a deal, I think that person won’t be around very long.” There’s little need to read between the lines to see that he was referring to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump confidently predicted that Ukraine would follow his lead “because I don’t think they have a choice.” It was as if he presented them with an offer they couldn’t refuse, and indeed he had—by halting military aid and intelligence-sharing this week, he effectively put a Russian gun metaphorically to Ukraine’s head. His later considerations about banking sanctions against Moscow seemed more like theatrics meant to maintain an image of toughness toward both sides, but it was clear who was expected to capitulate. Trump’s maneuvering suggested an expectation for Zelenskyy to cede a large portion of Ukraine’s resources, similar to how Corleone’s adversaries would give up their ventures to save themselves.
This is emblematic of how the U.S. now navigates international waters. Gone are the formalities. During his annual congressional address on Tuesday, Trump reiterated his bold claim over Greenland: “One way or the other, we’re going to get it.” This echoed previous threats to Denmark: give him what he wants, or deal with tariffs as a consequence. It was the kind of veiled threat reminiscent of organized crime tactics.
Trump has taken a similar strong-arm approach with Canada. Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau highlighted Trump’s aim to destabilize Canada economically, speculating that it would make annexation simpler. Trudeau insisted that Canada would never become the 51st state, likening Trump’s actions to those seen in the shadier parts of New Jersey’s construction circles: a flurry of destructive incidents until opposition submits.
The methods and message echo mafia influence. Trump’s fixation on respect was evident during his recent tense meeting with Zelenskyy. Along with JD Vance, Trump accused the Ukrainian leader multiple times of showing disrespect, more akin to the overly sensitive Joe Pesci character from Goodfellas than international statesmen.
The humiliation of subordinates is another parallel. During his Congressional address, Trump lightheartedly introduced Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the person responsible for reclaiming the Panama Canal. With a sly smile, he remarked, “Good luck, Marco,” implying blame would follow any failure. The room’s uneasy laughter underscored the palpable tension amongst his aides.
Both Trump’s allies and adversaries struggle to keep pace due to the unpredictable wielding of power. Tariffs are imposed and lifted capriciously. One reason tariffs appeal to Trump is that they can be swiftly enacted by presidential decree, with exceptions for favored industries. As MSNBC’s Chris Hayes noted, it’s akin to a “protection racket,” where business outcomes depend on their allegiance to Trump.
Domestically, Trump’s Cosa Nostra-esque tactics aren’t confined to international affairs. Reuters reported anonymous pizza deliveries to federal judges’ homes, seen as intimidation to show their locations were known—a clear attempt to instill fear. Coupled with Elon Musk’s online slurs against the judiciary, labeling them as “corrupt” and “evil,” there’s growing concern for the safety of those resisting Trump’s federal rollbacks. Retired Judge John Jones remarked he had never seen judges so uneasy.
Trump’s potential manipulation extends to controls over the media, reminiscent of Corleone strategies. There’s been a noticeable hush in America’s discourse. Some Democrats report Republican peers are too fearful for their safety and that of their families to criticize Trump.
This fear extends beyond politics. University presidents, wary of losing federal funds, keep quiet. CEOs, worried about tariffs impacting their businesses, stay silent too. The anxiety over potential social media attacks from Musk and Trump, escalating into physical threats, has a chilling effect on dissenters, as reported by the New York Times.
Trump’s behavior emulates the corrupt, indifferent demeanor of a mafia leader. Witness how he monetizes access at Mar-a-Lago, charging millions for private dinners. In tandem with announcing the non-enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, allowing Americans to bribe foreign officials legally, and dismantling anti-corruption task forces at the Department of Justice, these actions underscore a stark, transactional politics devoid of accountability.
Even the Corleones adhered to a code of retribution and remembrance. They believed in repaying services. Yet Trump frequently contests payments due to U.S. contractors and ignores allies’ sacrifices. This was glaringly illustrated by his vice-president’s dismissive comment regarding troops offered from nations like the UK, despite shared military histories and sacrifices.
These actions depict a leadership lacking even a criminal’s code of honor, now at the helm of what has been Britain’s closest ally for over a century. Given these circumstances, UK politics may need to rethink paths forward, whether rearming economically or reconnecting with the EU, since the 2016 Brexit landscape is obsolete. When the globe’s strongest nation acts like a mafia state, adaptation is imperative.
