It’s remarkable how much change just four years can bring. Back in 2021, eyes around the globe were focused on the German elections, as the world anticipated who would step into the shoes of the EU’s unofficial leader, Angela Merkel. At the time, Merkel was a symbol of liberal democracy, particularly during the first Trump administration. In Germany, the contenders vying to replace her seemed rather unremarkable. Yet, deep down, there was an understanding that Germany’s influential role in Europe was diminishing. However, few could have predicted how rapidly that influence would wane.
Fast forward to today, and Germany finds itself in a state of self-doubt, increasingly sidelined on both the European and global stages. The second Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered the optimistic echo of Merkel’s legacy, revealing her overly accommodating stance towards authoritarian figures like Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. Under Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the nation’s leadership feels as uninspired as the Chancellor himself.
As Germany heads into a general election, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any fundamental shifts. The election outcome seems almost predetermined, a familiar scenario across Europe over the past years. Immigration and the growing influence of the far right dominate the campaign discourse, echoing recent elections in Sweden, the Netherlands, and within the larger European landscape. This trend suggests that the far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is positioned to perform well.
However, unlike in Sweden and the Netherlands, the German election is not expected to bring the far right into power. Even though the AfD continues to nudge major parties to adopt more right-leaning positions, particularly on immigration, they remain outside the power structure. This exclusion is less about Germany’s historical experiences and more about the specific extremism of its far-right factions. Unlike other European far-right parties, the AfD skates dangerously close to extreme right views, raising barriers for democratic inclusion despite its radical right agenda and the backing of figures like U.S. Vice-President JD Vance.
Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) presents himself as the antithesis to Scholz but risks appearing equally indecisive and uninspiring if elected. Current polling suggests Merz’s right-wing CDU-CSU bloc may secure around 30% of the vote, with the AfD trailing at about 20%. Excluding the far-right party, Merz would likely require support from the SPD and possibly the Greens to form a government — although the presence of smaller parties nearing the 5% threshold might influence parliamentary seat distribution.
Looking beyond the contentious prospect of a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD, either with or without the Greens, any new government will face the challenge of a sluggish economy, anticipated to shrink for a third consecutive year. Additionally, issues like climate change and immigration reveal deep divisions among parties. This suggests Germany, the EU’s largest economy, will remain preoccupied with internal concerns even as Europe confronts significant external challenges.
While Merz won’t restore the Merkel-era prominence to Germany, he could reposition it closer to the center of the EU’s power dynamics, especially within the right-wing European People’s Party (EPP), where CDU holds sway. Endorsing Manfred Weber for a second term as EPP leader reflects a pragmatic alliance aimed at consolidating influence, aligning Germany with Brussels and strengthening ties with influential politicians like Poland’s Donald Tusk.
Despite these strategic moves, Merz’s leadership is unlikely to energize or unify Europe in facing challenges from Putin’s Russia or Trump’s America. While he may advocate for bolstering Europe’s military and support for Ukraine, his economic plans to cut €100 billion in spending could undercut the feasibility of meaningful defense investments.
Ultimately, Merz’s governance might bear more resemblance to Scholz’s than Merkel’s, leaving Europe in need of strong leadership as it navigates an increasingly challenging landscape marked by assertive authoritarian regimes and an adversarial US.
Cas Mudde, the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF Professor of International Affairs at the University of Georgia, and the author of “The Far Right Today,” provides this analysis.
