Financial markets experienced yet another tumultuous day as various asset classes reacted to a range of individual triggers.
Gold continued its upward trend, reaching a new all-time high amid ongoing global uncertainties. Meanwhile, crude oil prices saw a rebound following the imposition of new U.S. sanctions on Iran and China, stirring concerns about supply.
Major currencies were influenced by a bevy of significant developments, including top-tier employment reports and key central bank announcements.
Here’s a breakdown of the latest headlines and economic reports that you need to be aware of:
### Headlines:
China maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%.
Australia reported a drop of 52.8k in employment for February 2025, falling short of the 35.0k forecast and down from the previous 44.0k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, matching expectations.
Switzerland’s trade balance for February 2025 showed a surplus of 4.3 billion, exceeding the forecast of 3.9 billion and the previous figure of 4.0 billion.
Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February 2025 fell by 0.2% month-on-month, missing the forecast of a 0.1% increase but slightly better than the previous month’s decline of 0.1%. The year-on-year figure stood at 0.7%, versus a 1.0% forecast and 0.5% from the previous year.
In the U.K., the claimant count rose by 44.2k in February 2025, well above the expected 15.0k, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 5.9%, in line with forecasts.
The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25%, marking its lowest level since 2022, aiming to reduce inflows into the Swiss franc.
The Eurozone saw construction output remain flat in January 2025, below the expected 0.2% increase, though it improved from the previous month’s decline of 0.1%.
The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 4.50% as anticipated, with an 8-1 vote from the Monetary Policy Committee. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey urged caution due to a volatile global economic environment.
In Canada, the PPI rose 4.9% year-on-year for February 2025, slightly below the 5.0% forecast, though an improvement from a 5.8% increase previously. Raw Materials Prices increased by 9.3% compared to the previous year, lagging behind the expected 10.1% rise, and monthly data revealed a modest 0.3% uptick, less than the projected 0.5%.
The U.S. witnessed 223,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15, 2025, near the forecast of 225,000.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March 2025 came in at 12.5, a slight decline from the previous 18.1, yet surpassing the 11.0 forecast.
New U.S. sanctions were announced targeting Iran’s oil tankers and China’s independent refineries, known as “teapots.”
The U.S. current account deficit for Q4 2024 was reported at $303.9 billion, narrower than the expected $340.0 billion.
U.S. existing home sales rose by 4.2% in February 2025, significantly beating market expectations of a 0.7% decline.
At the Digital Asset Summit in New York, U.S. President Trump remained non-committal regarding the nation’s strategic crypto reserve strategy.
### Market Dynamics:
Asian and London markets calmed a bit after the FOMC storm, as assets found their footing within certain ranges, awaiting fresh catalysts.
Gold maintained its shine with new record highs near $3,057, but some profit-taking and a stronger dollar pulled it down during the London session.
WTI crude oil managed to stay positive, eventually rising to $68.40 following the U.S. sanctions, sparking fresh global supply concerns.
Bitcoin began strongly, reaching up to $87,200, but retreated to $84,273 as investors expressed disappointment after President Trump offered no new crypto policy promises.
Global stocks faced mixed signals, with European markets hit by worries over global economic growth. Germany’s DAX fell 1.18%, Italy’s FTSE MIB slid 1.32%, whereas the U.K.’s FTSE 100 had a slight dip of 0.05%.
U.S. stocks had a volatile day. The S&P 500, after trying to sustain a post-FOMC rally, ended 0.22% lower at 5,662.89. The NASDAQ dropped 0.33% to 17,691.63, and the Dow Jones edged down 0.03% to 41,953.32.
Treasury yields ended mostly lower, with the 10-year yield falling 1.5 basis points to 4.24% as mixed economic data painted an unclear picture of the U.S. economy’s health.
### FX Market Movements: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The U.S. dollar recovered from its post-FOMC slide, rising sharply against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as Australia’s job data disappointed. Other major currencies struggled to keep pace with the dollar, largely due to global growth worries impacting European markets.
In the U.K., weaker job data added to the economic growth concerns. The Swiss franc weakened after a rate cut, bolstering the USD/CHF pair.
Later, the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady with a more hawkish MPC vote temporarily lifted the pound, though GBP/USD eventually fell 0.28%.
The yen held tight against the dollar, buoyed by global risk aversion and anti-USD sentiment. The Canadian dollar showed resilience, with USD/CAD closing unchanged as higher oil prices supported the loonie.
### Next Potential Market Triggers:
– U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing at 7:00 am GMT
– Germany’s Bundesbank Mauderer Speech at 9:00 am GMT
– Euro area Current Account for January 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
– U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for March 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
– Canada Headline and Core Retail Sales at 12:30 pm GMT
– Canada New Housing Price Index for February 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
– U.S. Fed official Williams Speech at 1:05 pm GMT
– Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for March 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
Although the upcoming economic calendar is lighter, with Canada’s retail sales report taking center stage, keep an ear out for geopolitical news and tariff updates as these could sway market sentiment.
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