Alright, let’s dive into this wild world of oil forecasting. So, recently OPEC tweaked its crystal ball a tad, looking at global oil demand—yeah, it’s kind of a big deal. They’re shaving some numbers off because…guess what? The US is throwing around tariffs like confetti at a parade. So, the new number? 1.3 million barrels a day jump for this year and the next, but they’re still wearing rose-colored glasses compared to other economic mystics. Commerzbank dude, Michael Pfister, is pointing that out with a friendly-ish “Hey, that’s optimistic!”
Now, what about the juicy stuff in OPEC+ lands? Not much has changed there, they’re expecting a steady demand for their oily gold at 42.6 million barrels daily this year. March’s production was somewhere around that mark too—41 million barrels to be precise-ish. Clearly, they got some wiggle room for cranking up production without flooding the market.
Meanwhile, over at the US Energy Information Administration—cue dramatic music—these folks are seeing things totally different. They’re all like, “Nah, there’s gonna be a glut ‘cause demand’s gonna tank and OPEC+ is gonna turn on the taps even more.” According to OPEC’s latest scribblings, some countries are spilling, like Kazakhstan went rogue in March, overshooting by 200k barrels. Wild, right?
But then, plot twist: Kazakhstan pulls back a bit this April, saying to itself, “Oops, better slow down.” They chopped down production by 3%. Still, even with this slowdown charade, they’re over the “agreed” target. Yeah, Kazakhstan’s playing their own game with a backlog of cuts they promised to make for that over-the-top March performance. It’s like reality TV, but in barrels.
