In recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a relatively stagnant phase, hovering around $97,000. Despite a 3% drop over the last two weeks, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation period after reaching an all-time high of over $109,000 back in January.
With the cryptocurrency lingering in this price range, conversations about the halving cycle’s ongoing influence and its potential future impact are gaining traction. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen has offered an intriguing take, diving into how Bitcoin’s current position stacks up against previous halving cycles.
### Institutional Moves and Market Indicators
In a comprehensive report titled “Comparing Post-Halving Performance,” Oinonen highlighted that Bitcoin’s price has increased by just 63% since the April 2024 halving. This is a stark contrast to the striking 686% surge during the 2020-2021 halving cycle.
Adhering to the power-law model and the concept of diminishing returns, one might expect more moderate gains over time. However, the relatively modest appreciation since the last halving hints that the market cycle could still be unfolding, suggesting potential for additional growth.
Oinonen also turned the spotlight on institutional involvement as a significant driver of Bitcoin’s price prospects. An example is Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which remains a key player in the market. Early in 2025, the company bolstered its Bitcoin reserves by 7,633 BTC, reaching a total of approximately 478,740 units.
According to Oinonen, Strategy’s ongoing accumulation strategy serves as a crucial indicator of institutional interest. Historically, these acquisitions have aligned with market cycles, indicating that continued buying could bode well for Bitcoin’s spot price. On the flip side, a dip in institutional purchases might signal waning market confidence.
### Long-Term Prospects Amid an Incomplete Halving Cycle
Looking forward, Oinonen foresees a mixed market landscape. While short-term challenges like the notorious “sell in May” effect and a sluggish summer could pose hurdles, we might see stronger performance by the fourth quarter.
Oinonen notes that this seasonal trend has been a recurring theme in the past, often resulting in higher prices by year-end. However, the possibility of a more significant downturn—lasting several months or even a year—lurks, particularly if macroeconomic factors, such as geopolitical developments, alter the market’s direction.
Overall, Oinonen’s assessment suggests the current halving cycle hasn’t yet run its course. The modest gains since April 2024 indicate a market that has yet to fully take advantage of the slower rate of new Bitcoins being issued.
In conclusion, the idea that Bitcoin’s bull run could have further to go is grounded in historical patterns and the ongoing presence of institutional players like Strategy. The balance between a shrinking supply and ongoing demand sets the stage for potential price increases, even as we face near-term volatility.
