Palermo hasn’t witnessed such a spectacle in years. As dawn approached, the skies buzzed with helicopters, and every single one of Sicily’s Carabinieri barracks was emptied, with 1,200 officers dispatched. Even the elite Cacciatori force, known for their distinctive red berets, were brought in from Calabria. It was a scene right out of a movie: balaclava-clad officers wielding submachine guns, sniffer dogs on the hunt, doors being kicked in, and burly men being led away in Alfa Romeos. The morning news splashed with wiretaps exposing gangsters’ indiscretions. Cosa Nostra had made the headlines once again, but now under heavy police scrutiny.
Italy’s law enforcement has perfected this playbook. On February 11, none of the 181 men and women on the arrest list managed to evade capture. Not since the 1980s has there been a crackdown of this scale targeting the mafia. Back then, Sicily was on the verge of becoming a narco-state, and Cosa Nostra dismissed the authorities with disdain, eliminating anyone in power who dared oppose them.
Yet, a courageous few stood against them, with Judge Giovanni Falcone as their leader. His legendary “maxi trial” in Palermo during the mid-80s was a watershed moment, proving that even mafia bosses weren’t above the law. When Italy’s supreme court upheld these convictions in 1992, mafia kingpin Salvatore “Shorty” Riina retaliated by assassinating Falcone and fellow judge Paolo Borsellino with explosive attacks. It marked a perilous moment for the nation, but paradoxically confirmed Falcone’s substantial victory over organized crime.
In the last year of his life, Falcone was in Rome, reshaping Italy’s fight against the mafia, inspired by his Palermo experiences. He advocated for specialized prosecutors in every city, skilled police units, and comprehensive databases tracking “men of honor” and their associates. These measures, combined with new prison policies limiting communication between jailed bosses and their lieutenants, have severely weakened Cosa Nostra over the years.
The latest crackdown focused on veteran bosses, recently released from lengthy sentences, attempting to resurrect mafia operations. However, the released bugging transcripts reveal their frustrations. The once-loyal mafia code of silence, omertà, is breaking down. Recruits are not what they used to be: “The standards have dropped. Once arrested, they quickly confess.” This is a recurring complaint, similar to those voiced after the last significant raids in 2008 when Palermo’s crime leadership was dismantled.
Today, Cosa Nostra finds itself even more marginalized. Struggling in the narcotics trade, they scavenge for leftovers in a market dominated by their Calabrian counterparts, the ‘Ndrangheta. Their frustration seeps through: “Is this what we’ve come to—quibbling over a hashish slab? We’re in the dirt, thinking we run things when others truly control the scene.”
In this climate of declining influence, the latest wave of arrests shows no bloodshed nor political scandals—at least not yet. This mirrors the outcome of 2008’s large round-up, but now the mafia faces an uphill climb from an even weaker position.
Despite the feats of law enforcement, the sentiment in Sicily does not mirror the pessimism seen within mafia ranks. The protracted state-mafia trial, which consumed Italy’s attention for years, left a fragmented view on the island. This trial spun theories about a deep-seated pact between Cosa Nostra, politicians, and hidden power brokers, blaming these ties for political shifts like Silvio Berlusconi’s rise. It took until 2023 for Italy’s supreme court to dismiss these claims, but the discussion left deep divisions, and skepticism lingers.
This climate was fueled by grief, economic stagnation, and increasing anti-political sentiments. Beppe Grillo’s populist Five Star Movement and scandals tainting the anti-mafia efforts contributed further to the skepticism.
The recent arrests serve as a reality check amidst these wild theories. Palermo’s chief prosecutor, Maurizio De Lucia, known for his pragmatic approach, spearheaded this operation. Despite his skepticism about the so-called state-mafia trial, he’s cautious about claiming victory. Cosa Nostra continues to offer services like credit and debt collection, appealing to struggling businesses. Meanwhile, the bleak state of the prison system allows bosses to maintain influence from behind bars, holding virtual meetings with smuggled phones.
For all their grumblings, the old guard still has a grip on the youth in Palermo’s tougher neighborhoods. “Our ideals live within us, and we’ll die for them,” one mafioso romantically declared. Another added, “We’re wedded to Cosa Nostra for life.” Bolstered by such loyalty, mafiosi know they just need to outlast the frailest parts of Italy’s system and wait for an upswing.
John Dickie is a professor of Italian Studies at University College London and the author of “Cosa Nostra,” “Mafia Brotherhoods,” and “Mafia Republic.”
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