Recently, the U.S. Census Bureau shared that California’s population has inched up a bit, providing a glimmer of hope for those eager to see the state on a growth trajectory again. This data also showed a slightly lower rate of people leaving than before.
While this sounds like positive news, it’s not quite the turnaround California needs. The latest figures still sit below the state’s population numbers from 2020, with a growth rate that lags behind the national average. When compared to key competitor states, California’s statistics are even more concerning. From 2010 to 2024, its population increased by less than 6%, whereas states like Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Utah reported growth rates between 15% and nearly 30%.
Looking ahead, California’s growth prospects appear dim. Much of the recent population bounce is attributed to a historic wave of immigration during President Biden’s tenure. By contrast, immigration slowed dramatically under President Trump’s administration.
Some businesses and immigration advocates criticize the Trump-era restrictions, but it’s important to recognize that an influx of immigrants isn’t always economically beneficial. In 2024, the Congressional Budget Office highlighted that although increased immigration can boost the economy, the newcomers—often from poorer countries and undocumented—may strain local economies and put pressure on wages, housing, and social services, especially affecting low-income workers.
Moreover, the slight decrease in people moving out of California last year barely scratches the surface of a broader, decades-long exodus. The figures illustrate this point starkly: from 2020 to 2024, the state welcomed 934,000 international migrants but faced a net domestic migration loss of 1.46 million people. California’s pattern of losing residents parallels what’s been seen in Rust Belt states. Over the past 24 years, California has experienced a net domestic migration loss of over 4 million people—equivalent to the entire Seattle metropolitan area moving elsewhere.
California’s planners don’t foresee a change in this trend either. Back in 2007, projections suggested the population would swell from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. Today, the estimate for 2050 is only 40 million.
People are leaving California, or choosing not to move there, for sensible reasons—primarily economic. A 2020 study found that minorities, such as Asian, Latino, and Black populations, generally experience higher real incomes and homeownership rates in Southern or heartland cities compared to the East or West Coast metros. Cities like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Miami have become more attractive destinations, drawing people away from California. Despite an influx of immigrants to the state, foreign-born populations in cities across Texas, Florida, and parts of Ohio, North Carolina, and Tennessee are increasing faster than in San Francisco, while Los Angeles is seeing a decline.
California, once a magnet for the young and ambitious, now ranks low in attracting newcomers from other areas of the country. Instead, many affluent young professionals are packing up and leaving. In 2022, the state lost over 200,000 net migrants aged 25 and older, most of whom held four-year or associate degrees. Meanwhile, states like Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas are seeing a surge in that demographic.
A recent survey listed the top five regions for young job seekers, and four were situated in the South. Many young people, looking toward their future, prefer areas with higher family formation rates like Utah, Texas, and the Southern states. From 2008 to 2022, California’s fertility rate plummeted from being the 17th highest to the 40th in the nation.
This trend suggests that California’s rivals will continue adding workers at a quicker pace. Although the state still boasts the largest number of foreign-born residents and is home to many wealthy individuals, including retirees, even these groups are relocating. The Wall Street Journal reported that in 2022, affluent migrants took almost $24 billion out of California, echoing what’s happening in states like New York, Illinois, and New Jersey.
For Los Angeles residents who endure endless traffic jams, a reduced population might sound appealing. However, the reality is that the decline and the types of people leaving or avoiding California could spell trouble ahead. Fewer young, energetic residents and their children don’t bode well for California’s future. As John Maynard Keynes once remarked about overpopulation challenges, addressing one issue without care might only unleash another, more daunting problem.
Coping with a significant shortfall of skilled workers, which is only expected to worsen, California must address why its appeal is fading. The state’s ability to generate security and wealth for its citizens is stalling, primarily due to high housing costs. Combine that with shrinking economic opportunities, and long-term stagnation seems inevitable.
The youthful vibrancy that once made California the most remarkable region is not guaranteed. Now is the time to carefully analyze the data and find ways to bring back the promise of our once Golden State.
Joel Kotkin contributes to Opinion pieces, is a presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University, and a senior research fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas, Austin.
