Does Donald Trump pose a nightmare scenario for China or unearth a golden opportunity? It’s a bit of both, though not in equal parts. In the immediate future, Trump’s tariff-centric trade policies pose a real challenge to Beijing. Yet, within mere weeks, he’s disrupted the liberal international order, fragmented the unity of the democratic West, and diminished the United States’ global reputation more than any concerted effort throughout the Cold War. This surpasses even the most ambitious dreams of China’s leaders.
The tariffs already in place are significant, and Beijing can’t help but see them as a sign of more to come. Unlike his first term when the threats seemed empty, now Trump appears ready to follow through. With China’s economy already sputtering, an intensified trade war is the last thing Beijing needs, despite the bold front its diplomats put up.
However, these tariffs and even an all-out trade war are short- to medium-term concerns. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China will hold its ground, despite the hefty price tag. In the long term, however, the strategic missteps of Trump provide unintentional benefits to Xi, particularly on the global stage.
Trump’s approach to peace in Ukraine, which seems heavily influenced by Russian interests, along with his blunt tactics regarding Canada and Greenland, offers immense advantages to China. He’s frayed ties with key US allies in North America and Europe and signaled a step back from commitments to international initiatives like USAID, the UN, and the WHO.
Why is this beneficial for Beijing? It aligns perfectly with China’s developed global game plan grounded in Xi Jinping Thought. The ultimate objective is the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by the year 2049, marking the centennial of the People’s Republic. Trump’s actions inadvertently pave the way for Xi’s vision.
Xi’s endgame is to elevate China’s status on a global scale in a manner that befits Chinese terms. This entails restoring China to its historically prominent position as a leader in power, wealth, innovation, and civilization. The path forward, as Xi describes it, involves the “democratization of international relations.” Once realized, China would spearhead a shared destiny for humanity, guided by Xi’s trio of initiatives focusing on development, security, and civilization.
This isn’t about fabricating a completely new world order to supplant the US-led system that arose post-World War II. Instead, it’s about reshaping the existing order to be centered around China, leveraging support from the global south. This means ensuring that the UN prioritizes the needs and aspirations of the global south, championed by China, rather than those of the West.
The notion of “democratization” crystallizes when considering that a clear majority of UN member states, representing the bulk of the global populace, hail from the global south. While China’s narrative finds receptive ears in the global south, especially among leaders in autocratic nations, it fails to gain traction in affluent democratic countries.
For decades, Western democracies have mostly stood united with the US, despite serious disagreements like the Suez Crisis in 1956 or the Iraq invasion in 2003. This solidarity played a pivotal role in winning the Cold War and reshaping the post-war world. Efforts by Chinese diplomats to fracture US-Europe solidarity following Trump’s Ukraine propositions have largely fallen flat.
To effectively transform the UN system, China needs to prove that the current international framework is so flawed it requires a complete overhaul. Despite extensive efforts and substantial investment through initiatives like the Belt and Road project, China has struggled to gain significant ground.
By pressuring Ukraine into peace talks, dismissively treating European nations, and largely acquiescing to Russia’s terms to conclude the conflict, Trump has fundamentally altered the dynamic with US allies. He has managed what Chinese diplomacy alone couldn’t.
Trump’s actions have led NATO allies to question their reliance on the US. By posing risks to Canada, a steadfast ally, and challenging Denmark’s sovereignty, he has shown the global community that the US, once regarded as a beacon of hope, now seems mired in self-interest.
Crucially, Trump allows China to accuse the US of hypocrisy. Beijing can now argue that the US has unveiled its true colors, prioritizing America first under the guise of the liberal international order, making it outdated for the 21st century and in need of transformation. This narrative dovetails neatly with Xi’s global strategy.
Although Beijing’s persuasion efforts in the global south regarding a reformed UN system were sluggish, Trump’s actions have inadvertently accelerated them. Amid the hardships faced by the poorest in the global south as US humanitarian aid dwindles, China’s push for democratized international relations gains momentum daily. No spokesperson for China has furthered their narrative more effectively than Trump.
In his drive to put America first, Trump has inadvertently done more for China’s ascent than Xi could have alone. While Xi’s China Dream remains a work in progress, Trump’s contributions have undeniably spurred it forward significantly.
