Kyiv is experiencing a bit of a thaw. With temperatures climbing from -5°C to 4°C, the city occasionally basks in brief moments of sunshine as clouds part now and again. Yet, the usual anticipation for spring seems absent. Instead, there’s a prevailing air of nervous anticipation. It’s not about the expectation of military conflict coming to an end or a peace agreement with Russia. No, this feeling is linked to something less defined, connected to Donald Trump and the potential shift in US policy on Ukraine.
The day brought some clarity with events at the White House, which unfolded like a grim drama. Trump offered handshakes, thumbs-ups, and fist pumps, as he sat with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a minerals-for-military-support arrangement while simultaneously humiliating him. As this unfolded, air raid alarms blared in northern and eastern Ukraine, cutting the talks short, leaving Zelenskyy to make a hasty exit.
What transpired for the cameras was both chilling and extraordinary. Zelenskyy appeared grave, filled with anger and desperation befitting a leader forced to compromise his nation’s dignity. Meanwhile, Trump portrayed himself as a neutral arbitrator, claiming allegiance to global interests over any one nation. He urged Zelenskyy, who leads a country under siege, to make a deal—or lose U.S. support.
From there, the situation only deteriorated. Zelenskyy presented photographs of war atrocities, expressing a glimmer of hope—albeit faint—that Trump might actually be supportive, which certainly wasn’t expected. Vice President JD Vance accused Zelenskyy of disrespect, as both Trump and Vance publicly berated him, showcasing a version of diplomacy that felt loaded with accusation and lacking in empathy.
Yet, hopes among Ukrainians for a straightforward proposal from Trump to resolve the war had long since faded. Instead, they confronted the reality that Trump’s interests in Ukraine were varied and often conflicting, rarely focusing on aiding a nation under Russian threat. In the past couple weeks, the focus has shifted noticeably. Talks on ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have pivoted to discussing rare earth metal extraction. Negotiations, even far off in Saudi Arabia, veered towards these precious resources, overshadowing dialogues about war and military assistance.
Older Ukrainians, raised under Soviet influences, can’t help but see shades of the America portrayed in Soviet cartoons—a place driven by capitalist greed, quick to dismiss complex problems in pursuit of profits. It’s a jarring realization, especially given the existential stakes of this war. Trump suggests Zelenskyy isn’t willing to seek peace, but Ukraine, frantically fighting against aggression, has little choice. Now, aid is not merely given; it must be bought, or compensated through resources.
Notably, America’s interest in Ukraine has shifted from purely geopolitical to financial. Instead of Biden, a businessman in the form of Trump now leads these engagements. The proposed agreement on mining rare earth metals, according to Trump, is a fair deal. It establishes an “investment fund” where Ukraine would share half the future profits from its resources, purportedly to fortify Ukraine’s stability. However, concerns linger—such arrangements offer no security guarantee against Russian aggression, nor do they compel Russia to ease hostility.
In this shifting dynamic, Britain and the EU’s roles become crucial. As Trump’s plan aims to manage Ukrainian resources, he seemingly passes the responsibility of Ukraine’s future security and military support to Europe. The benefit of such a deal for Ukraine remains unclear.
Trump’s assurances that US mining operations on Ukrainian soil would deter Russian aggression are mired in skepticism, particularly as other foreign investments, like China’s, failed to prevent Russian attacks. His cordiality towards Putin contrasted sharply with his disdain for Zelenskyy, showcasing troubling diplomatic priorities. Trump boldly claimed that a resolution would materialize swiftly or not at all, hinting at limited patience for prolonged negotiations with Putin.
Zelenskyy demonstrated courage, yet Ukraine stands as a mere spectator in a geopolitical tango between the US and Russia. The principle “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” emphasized by President Biden, appears disregarded as Trump navigates negotiations without Ukrainian input. For Ukrainians, the prospect of becoming a “US colony” in exchange for protection from Russia is a dilemma. Yet if it meant choosing between allegiances, many would prefer America over Russian dominance.
