In a Perilous New Age, Starmer Steps Forward – Possibly Finding His True Purpose | Rafael Behr

British politics is currently experiencing one of those rare moments where both the ruling party and the official opposition find themselves backing the same policy, even though it goes against the grain of their traditional rivalry. This odd alignment is largely due to external pressures rather than any newfound harmony.

Over recent months, Keir Starmer has faced growing calls to boost the UK’s defense budget to 2.5% of the national GDP. Notably, these pressures haven’t just come from conservative voices; they’re a response to broader geopolitical issues.

Last year clearly highlighted the need for increased defense spending. With the turmoil on Europe’s eastern frontiers and the escalating costs of supporting Ukraine against Russian advances, it became evident that a larger defense budget was essential. This was Britain’s way of safeguarding against the unpredictable actions of Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The situation turned even more critical when Donald Trump made a return to the White House. His policies sent a chilling signal across Ukraine, making allies uneasy as America seemed to pivot away from its established stance. Trump’s nod to Kremlin policies and his unsettling view of Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as his expectation for recompense through territorial concessions, marked a troubling shift in global affairs. Suddenly, U.S. foreign policy appeared to take on an unsettlingly transactional air, resembling a protection racket more than diplomatic alliances.

This marked approach is aligned with Russia’s post-Soviet tactics, blending imperial ambitions with kleptocratic tendencies, hinting at a regression to fierce power struggles in Europe—something Western democracies have long worked to avert since World War II ended.

The fallout threatens the very fabric of international trade, norms, and the institutions aimed at ensuring global peace, which in turn, had afforded nations like the UK the luxury of scaling back on military expenditure in favor of other pursuits.

Recognizing these dangers, Starmer has belatedly acknowledged that defense spending must rise. From the overseas aid budget, the funds will shift towards defense, signaling the UK’s pivot from a soft to a harder stance on global affairs. By 2027, the goal is 2.5% of GDP, with a hopeful stretch to 3%.

Prime Minister Starmer has openly bemoaned this reallocation of funds, which formerly supported international development. Yet, he argues the urgency of the moment allows little choice. There’s talk of potential economic benefits—outgrowths from military investments could boost industries and generate jobs as a byproduct of this increased spending.

This won’t be the last time national security reshapes budget priorities, turning focus away from projects Labor MPs traditionally champion. However, bipartisan support means there’s little immediate resistance to this realignment.

Just before Tuesday’s announcement, Kemi Badenoch urged a similar strategy, suggesting the timing of these statements was no accident, coming just ahead of the prime minister’s visit to Washington.

Starmer’s approach isn’t impulsive. Known for his methodical nature—a trait that can irk some of his colleagues—he’s typically cautious, preferring to conduct thorough reviews before committing to new strategies. This time, however, the pressures from Trump’s policies have expedited his decision to position the UK as a key NATO spender. This financial commitment is seen as essential for the UK to maintain its seat at the table in discussions about Ukraine.

Although critiques of NATO and calls for European allies to shoulder more of their defense costs aren’t new, Trump’s overt disregard for allies and his admiration for adversaries demonstrate unparalleled tensions.

Thus, increasing defense spending serves two purposes: attempting to deter Trump from fully abandoning European security, and preparing for the possibility he does. Starmer’s calculated style means that when he finally acts, it’s with firm resolve.

His decision-making might not match the hasty pace of the modern media cycle but harks back to a more deliberate, analog era of politics. In this environment, Britain seems to be shifting towards a wartime economy, indicating a renewed national focus on security amid an era where reliance on the U.S. feels precarious.

For British citizens yearning for economic relief, this strategy, suggesting sacrifice, isn’t what many wanted to hear. Promised prosperity seems endlessly deferred, and public faith in political timelines is waning.

Though many have invoked the collective strength of “blitz spirit,” repeatedly calling upon such reserves in peace has left them thinned. Sadly, the current climate means military metaphors are no longer just rhetoric. Starmer’s reserved demeanor may not inspire the masses like a traditional wartime leader, but his calm, solid leadership style might be what’s needed. In an unpredictable world stage, there are certainly more concerning alternatives in leadership.

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