In the upcoming week, the stock market, which has been somewhat lacking in clear direction, might just find its path. Investors should brace themselves for two significant market-influencing events on the horizon. First, Nvidia is set to release its earnings report, the first since China’s impactful DeepSeek announcement in January, which shook the confidence in AI companies. Additionally, the latest data on personal consumption expenditures—a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve—will be released, potentially guiding short-term monetary policy decisions. Together, these could provide a much-needed jolt to a market that’s been meandering for direction.
Despite the initial turbulence of 2025, with various trade and policy developments stirring the pot, the S&P 500 recently closed at around 6,013. Not much movement has occurred since early December’s 6,032 or the January high of 6,119. A brief flirtation with all-time highs early this week faded just as quickly, underscoring the market’s resilience despite current unease. For many investors, there’s still hope that this year could see new records breached, while some remain wary, sensing the market’s current valuation overlooks potential pitfalls which could trigger a correction. Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, commented, "It seems like we’re more on edge, waiting for something to pull the market back than expecting a push higher. We’re somewhat stagnant now, with more chances of a 5-10% correction than a market rally that drives investor euphoria."
Indeed, there was little excitement on Friday as the market wrapped up a tough week. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5%, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.7%. Friday was especially bleak for the Dow, which nosedived over 700 points, marking its worst day of the year. Investors are now pinning their hopes on Nvidia to rekindle interest in the AI sector. After remarkable gains in 2023 and 2024, Nvidia’s performance has been more subdued this year, up just 4% compared to last year’s 170% surge. The other tech heavyweights, fondly dubbed the "Magnificent Seven," have had mixed results this year, further complicating the market picture.
Tesla has taken a significant hit, down about 13%, and other giants like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft have also seen slides. The exception in this bunch has been Meta Platforms, which has risen about 20%, while Amazon maintains a minor increase. The gap left by the faltering tech titans has been filled by new leaders from the energy, healthcare, and financial sectors, while consumer discretionary stocks have notably underperformed. The S&P 500 reaching new highs in 2025 without crucial backing from the Mag 7 highlights a shift in market dynamics. Barclays’ Venu Krishna has recently pondered whether financials, not tech, now primarily drive earnings estimates.
As Nvidia prepares to report, its ability to navigate both the concerns from DeepSeek and ongoing tariff uncertainties will be under scrutiny. The market eagerly awaits reassurances from CEO Jensen Huang. Meanwhile, analysts are split on whether Nvidia’s stock will meet or outstrip expectations, with Wall Street projecting varied outcomes. A notably warm inflation print in January added complexity, fueling speculation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, where significant decisions on interest rates might be made.
This week’s PCE report will be crucial, as it’s the Fed’s last glimpse at its favored inflation metric before the meeting. Forecasts suggest a slight ease in inflation, with the PCE price index likely rising 2.5% compared to last year’s 2.6%. Such data could sway market sentiments, suggesting either a possible surge if numbers align with predictions or a downturn if they don’t, especially amid tariff-induced inflation worries.
Next week’s market reaction will be under the microscope. Analyst Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG has indicated he’ll be watching for any false signals of breakout above 6,100 in the S&P 500, which could hint at a more profound correction. Woods notes that disappointing news from Nvidia or a hotter-than-expected PCE could lead to a sell-off, aligning with the end of earnings season and a focus shift to economic indicators and Fed policy.
Here’s a look at the upcoming week’s key events, all times in ET:
Monday, Feb. 24
- 8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January)
- 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Index (February)
- Earnings: Public Storage, Diamondback Energy, Domino’s Pizza
Tuesday, Feb. 25
- 9 a.m.: FHFA Home Price Index (December)
- 9 a.m.: S&P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI M/M (December)
- 10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence (February)
- 10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Index (February)
- Earnings: Extra Space Storage, Workday, Axon Enterprise, First Solar, Caesars Entertainment, Public Service Enterprise Group, Keurig Dr Pepper, Home Depot
Wednesday, Feb. 26
- 8 a.m.: Building Permits final (January)
- 10 a.m.: New Home Sales (January)
- Earnings: Nvidia, Ebay, Salesforce, Universal Health Services, Paramount Global, Invitation Homes, TJX Companies, Lowe’s Companies
Thursday, Feb. 27
- 8:30 a.m.: Continuing Jobless Claims (02/15)
- 8:30 a.m.: Durable Orders preliminary (January)
- 8:30 a.m.: GDP second preliminary (Q4)
- 8:30 a.m.: Initial Claims (02/22)
- 10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index (January)
- 10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales (January)
- 11 a.m.: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (February)
- Earnings: HP, Dell Technologies, NetApp, Autodesk, Warner Bros. Discovery, J. M. Smucker Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Hormel Foods
Friday, Feb. 28
- 8:30 a.m.: Core PCE Deflator (January)
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal Consumption Expenditure (January)
- 8:30 a.m.: Personal Income (January)
- 8:30 a.m.: Wholesale Inventories preliminary (January)
- 9:45 a.m.: Chicago PMI (February)
Please note a previous version incorrectly spelled Freedom Capital Markets. Correction: Jay Woods is the chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.
