The anguish and destruction over the past 16 months will leave an indelible mark on families, communities, and the entire Middle East for years. Just this past Thursday, Hamas returned the bodies of two young children, their mother, and an 83-year-old peace activist to Israel. They were taken hostage during the tragic raid on October 7, 2023, where militants claimed the lives of approximately 1,200 Israelis and others. Since then, about 48,000 Palestinians, mainly civilians, have been killed in Gaza following Israel’s retaliatory actions.
Many feared from the start that the ceasefire agreement—which offered Palestinians in Gaza a desperately needed reprieve and facilitated the return of Israeli and foreign hostages—would be short-lived. The initial six-week stage is set to conclude on March 1, yet discussions for the more intricate second stage have stalled, lingering over two weeks past their expected start.
However, there are slivers of hope. One comes from Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, who confidently stated last weekend that “phase two is absolutely going to begin.” Additionally, Hamas, having faced significant military pressure both within Gaza and from neighboring Arab governments, announced its readiness to release all remaining hostages simultaneously in the next phase. In return, they want Israel to swiftly retreat from Gaza and release hundreds more Palestinians. Reports indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu has stipulated that this next phase requires Hamas to disarm and vacate Gaza entirely.
Netanyahu is keen to maintain positive ties with Trump, yet he doesn’t necessarily benefit from moving into phase two, mainly due to the risk of Bezalel Smotrich, a key member of his coalition, possibly withdrawing his support. Netanyahu’s security chiefs have long believed political maneuvering to be the main obstacle to progress. He has now replaced them in the negotiation team with Ron Dermer, a trusted advisor, who might consider bypassing Witkoff to interact directly with Trump.
At this critical point, extending phase one is preferable to all-out cessation. Successfully negotiating and implementing phase two, though challenging, would be a significant stride forward. However, the looming question of phase three—what reconstruction in Gaza would look like—still stands. Trump’s unsettling proposal to establish a US-owned “Riviera of the Middle East” over Palestinian territories has sparked a delicate discussion, previously avoided to prevent jeopardizing current agreements due to its complexity.
To displace Palestinians, countries willing to accept them are necessary. Although Egypt and Jordan are heavily reliant on US aid, their leaders can’t afford to yield to such demands. As Arab nations gather in Riyadh on Friday, they’ll be eagerly searching for an alternative, exploring a swift plan by Cairo where the UAE, Qatar, and others would finance Gaza’s reconstruction, with Hamas kept out of governance and oversight. Even if a theoretically viable plan emerges, it would require diplomacy to secure Trump’s agreement. Meanwhile, with hostages still held and dire conditions persisting in Gaza, safeguarding the ceasefire remains paramount. Whether or not it can be the stepping stone for a longstanding resolution remains uncertain, but it is crucial for saving lives in the present.
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