In the typically intricate web of international politics, it’s often observed that Britain directs its gaze a bit too frequently towards the United States, while not affording sufficient attention to Germany. This longstanding imbalance seems more understandable amidst today’s tumultuous climate where global tensions are high. Recently, it has become evident that Donald Trump is more focused on self-gain, venturing into contentious areas like Gaza, Ukraine, and Greenland for profit rather than promoting peace and stability.
Nonetheless, overlooking Germany, especially now, isn’t strategic. British politicians, much like their German counterparts, are reevaluating their strategies as they navigate turbulent political waters. Despite no longer wielding the power it once did, Germany remains a significant and influential European nation. The necessity of Germany’s role is even clearer in light of Trump’s administrative antics, which have, to some degree, isolated Europe.
All eyes should be on Germany as it heads to a pivotal general election this Sunday. The outcomes will resonate widely, impacting Germany’s own grapple with prolonged economic stagnation, immigration concerns, and a dicey relationship with borrowing and defense commitments. The anxiety over U.S. attitudes towards Russia’s approach on Eastern European borders is another critical point of tension for Germany.
Germany’s election results will stretch beyond its borders, influencing whether Europe, in its entirety, can withstand another Trump term. Can Europe orchestrate enough military and economic support to shield the vulnerable regions like the Baltics and Poland, let alone rethink its economic strategy? These are questions Britain cannot sidestep, even if it would prefer to.
The German election, intriguing as it is, gets minimal attention, overshadowed by the relentless focus on U.S. elections. What attention it does get tends to center around the populist, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. Consequently, Friedrich Merz and his center-right CDU-CSU coalition, poised as likely winners this Sunday, haven’t been scrutinized as they perhaps should be.
This election plays out against an alarming backdrop of economic decline—Germany’s economy has contracted in both 2023 and 2024, with 2025 not looking any brighter. It marks the most extended span of economic stagnation since post-World War II. The incoming chancellor will face significant challenges akin to those awaiting Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
Germany’s troubles are complex but not inscrutable. Reliance on Russian energy left the country vulnerable; prices surged post-Ukraine invasion. The coalition led by Olaf Scholz since 2021 made strides in reducing this energy dependency—renewables now account for a notable 60% of Germany’s energy—but problems persist. Car exports are costly against a backdrop of competitive electric vehicles from China, and a tariff dispute with the U.S. looms.
The consequences of these shifts have been jarring for a nation deeply conditioned by a postwar craving for stability. As commentator Theo Koll noted, Germany has long cocooned itself, focusing inward rather than embracing external challenges.
Another visible shift is the rise of the AfD, fueled by public perceptions of uncontrolled migration. This sentiment intensified following violent incidents involving migrants during the election campaign, including in cities like Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg, and Munich. Politico’s poll suggests the AfD might secure 21% of the vote, doubling its previous election performance.
A win for Merz’s CDU-CSU could be pivotal. Acknowledging that a projected 29% falls short of the 42% garnered under Angela Merkel in 2013, it’s still an important statement against right-wing populism in Europe’s core. It’ll be a reminder of resilience for other center-right parties across Europe, including those in France and the UK.
However, Merz’s path isn’t straightforward. The crux is coalition building and legislative direction. Depending on election results, his most feasible partner might be the SPD or perhaps the Greens, as Merz has ruled out any partnership with the AfD.
Post-election, a potential weak coalition may hamper Merz’s reform agenda—familiar issues like a streamlined welfare system, business deregulation, and increased defense spending. He is open to revisiting Germany’s “debt brake,” potentially unlocking public investment—yet the complete political picture may take until Easter to crystallize.
A pressing issue intertwined with all these considerations is border management. Merz’s proposal to toughen border controls sparked backlash, including from Merkel, who criticized it for leaning towards far-right sentiments. Nonetheless, border security remains a pivotal concern for ensuring the nation’s welfare.
The stakes of Sunday’s election are elevated, irrespective of Trump’s political maneuvers. It’s less about an extreme right surge and more about testing the endurance and evolved vision of a center-right legacy, a vision Merkel once termed “the new social capitalism.” In this recession, its robustness will be severely tested, and Merz’s mandate, should he secure it, will be a defining moment—not just for Germany, but for wider Europe.
