The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, now stretching into its third year, marks the most devastating confrontation in Europe since 1945. Despite talks initiated by the Trump administration with Russia, there’s little hope that a resolution is on the horizon.
In an insightful discussion with the Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda expressed his fears that when this war does conclude, Poland could face a surge in organized crime spreading across Europe and even reaching the U.S. His concerns echo a familiar worry in Western political circles. Duda drew parallels to the 1990s in Russia, when veterans from the Soviet-Afghanistan war returned, unleashing waves of violence throughout the former USSR.
However, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry pushed back against these comparisons, finding them unfair. They insist that Ukrainian soldiers and veterans should be seen as pillars of security for their nation, Poland, and the broader European region.
The gravity of Duda’s warnings can’t be easily dismissed. Unlike the decade-long Soviet war in Afghanistan, which didn’t cause the same societal upheaval, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left deep scars. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s military numbers around 980,000. When these soldiers, many bearing physical and psychological wounds, return to civilian life, they’ll return to a country in ruins. What future awaits them?
Post-war, Ukraine is already grappling with significant mental health challenges. Back in April 2018, long before the conflict was accurately recognized as a war, data highlighted that over 1,000 Ukrainian veterans had tragically taken their own lives. Today, the Health Ministry estimates that nearly 15 million Ukrainians—out of a population under 40 million—will need psychological support due to the ongoing war.
Yet, Ukraine’s struggling economy, with a public debt of $166.1 billion as of December, casts doubt on its capacity to fund vital services, including mental health care. Last year, Ukraine legalized medical cannabis partly as a remedy for PTSD among troops and civilians, but solutions remain inadequate, with only one psychologist for every 400-500 service members.
Firearms were already prevalent in Ukraine before the war, with an estimated 4 million unregistered guns in circulation. The situation has escalated, as gun laws have relaxed, and President Zelensky assured weapons for anyone willing to defend the nation. In Kyiv alone, civilians received 18,000 rifles, fostering home defense militias. As troops stand down, the abundance of military-grade weapons will likely aggravate crime rates and lawlessness.
Even though tensions are high, the Ukrainian government appears more engaged in political games—both domestically and on the international stage—than in preparing for the post-war landscape. Statements about global alliances are frequent, but genuine efforts to address veterans’ needs are notably absent.
A peace agreement perceived as a surrender could further depress national morale, already strained by declining troop levels and Russia’s recent advances. History suggests that such disillusionment can sap confidence in leadership, paving the way for extremist factions to incite unrest.
Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukrainians rallied around previously polarizing symbols. The phrase “Slava Ukraini!” (Glory to Ukraine), once linked to WWII-era nationalist movements, became a unifying call, even in regions resistant to nationalism. Yet, by 2025, such fervor has subsided, hinting at potential unrest driven by trauma, hardship, and disillusionment. Combined with an armed, war-forged population, these factors could pose as much a threat as external aggression.
As the war’s end nears, Ukraine must brace for internal turmoil. Vladmir Putin likely anticipates exploiting this as a post-conflict strategy, achieving from within what military efforts could not.
Ukraine will require substantial Western backing to navigate these looming challenges. Financial assistance, infrastructure investment, and comprehensive mental health support will be critical to reintegrate veterans and safeguard stability.
However, Western resolve, especially in Europe and the U.S., seems to be wavering. Recent polls signal a decline in support, alongside growing skepticism about continued U.S. aid. Whether Ukraine’s allies will step in to prevent a post-war crisis—or watch it unravel from within—remains uncertain.
While peace may eventually be achieved, the aftermath could prove just as destabilizing for Ukraine as the war itself.
Sergey Maidukov, the author of “Life on the Run: One Family’s Search for Peace in War-torn Ukraine,” shares his insights from Kyiv.
