Last week, some jaw-dropping figures made headlines. If the Office for National Statistics is on target, we’re looking at a net migration boost of five million people to the UK over the next ten years. That’s going to account for almost all of the population growth in that timeframe, bringing us to a whopping 72.5 million by the time 2032 rolls around.
So, is this a cause for celebration or concern? The reactions were mixed. Sure, there’s already substantial pressure on housing, education, and health services, so it’s understandable why some folks find this worrisome. On the flip side, though, some argue that with global birth rates on a decline and Britain, like many other nations, gradually aging, we could actually benefit. Skilled young people from abroad might be precisely what we need, especially since many other countries will also be vying for their talents.
Now, what about the viewpoint of the general public? It’s complicated. Even though concerns about newcomers have eased in recent times, there was a noticeable resurgence in 2023. But here’s the twist: last week, seven different polls showed the Reform Party overtaking the Conservatives. One of Reform’s key selling points is its firm stance against immigration.
The crux of the matter is really whether immigration is seen as positive or negative, accepted or frowned upon, hinges on something more nuanced than just the raw numbers. Politicians love to debate the volume of immigration, but what often gets overlooked is the crucial aspect of how well newcomers mesh with the economy and integrate into the broader fabric of British society.
It’s clear that integration matters deeply to Britons. It may seem contradictory because when asked about immigration numbers, many claim they’re too high. Yet, when it comes to specific groups — be it refugees, students, critical workers, artists, or healthcare professionals — the sentiment shifts. People tend to welcome them or even wish for more of their kind. We generally build good relationships with immigrants we interact with, and this isn’t contradictory — it’s nuanced. When immigrants are involved in meaningful work and become part of the community, everyone gains. When that doesn’t happen, issues can crop up.
Fortunately, there are reasons to be optimistic about the anticipated influx of newcomers. Integration is a trailblazing success in Britain. We do exceptionally well in helping arrivals settle in. We don’t often tout this accomplishment, perhaps due to sensitivities around the subject, but we should.
First, let’s consider employment rates. Among migrant men of working age, the employment rate stands at 82%, outperforming their UK-born counterparts, who come in at 78%. While women’s employment rates are slightly lower than native-born women, Britain still fares better in this area than many EU countries, where foreign-born employment lags significantly. Additionally, migrants make notable contributions to various industries, providing a substantial economic uplift. A 2023 study revealed that 39% of Britain’s 100 fastest-growing companies have at least one immigrant founder or co-founder, despite immigrants totaling only 14.5% of the overall population.
When it comes to education, there’s ample reason to be proud. Sam Freedman, a policy expert, highlighted a recent Pisa study on 15-year-olds, indicating that the UK was the only European nation outside Serbia where second-generation immigrants outperformed non-immigrants. Moreover, 58% of Bangladeshi students receiving free school meals pursue higher education, a stark contrast to just 16% of their white British counterparts.
Social integration tells an encouraging story as well. Between 1991 and 2021, segregation decreased across all ethnic groups, including white Britons. This trend isn’t just in major cities but also in smaller towns and suburbs where the foreign-born population is growing fast. The number of mixed-ethnicity households is also on the rise, jumping from 9% in 2001 to nearly 15% of multi-person homes by 2021, partly spurred by the rise of dating and roommate apps. Interestingly, foreign-born individuals are underrepresented in the UK prison system, a rarity globally.
So, what’s our secret sauce? Language plays a huge role. English’s widespread use worldwide offers a natural advantage, speeding up integration. Our flexible labor market is another asset, notably more accommodating than many European countries where red tape can obstruct immigrant workforce participation. Plus, our outlook is notably open. According to the 2023 European Social Survey, only Norway is less likely than the UK to view immigration as detrimental.
Of course, there’s room for improvement. We face challenges like cultural prejudices and extremist influences. Although segregation is lessening, it still poses difficulties. Our handling of asylum seekers is notably lacking, preventing them from working while their cases stagnate. On top of that, small boat crossings are up, and the decline in international students is stressing universities, which increasingly depend on their fees. Cardiff University announced a reduction of 400 jobs just last week.
Addressing these issues while building on our strengths is crucial. Shifting the conversation from sheer numbers to focusing on integration would be a great place to start. It’d also help if political rhetoric refrained from exaggerating immigration’s negatives. For instance, last week, Kemi Badenoch’s unfounded claim that a lack of integration was behind the crimes of the Southport mass shooter, Axel Rudakubana, does nothing but hinder progress and integration efforts.
Martha Gill is an Observer columnist.
