Europe is facing significant challenges, both longstanding and emerging, that are testing the resilience and unity of the European Union like never before. Since the EU came together in the early 1990s, it hasn’t seen an existential threat of this magnitude. Yet, there’s a glaring lack of decisive and united leadership. Highlighting this crisis of spirit, Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, recently spoke of a “spiritual crisis” and a “palpable mood of uncertainty, of loss” spreading across the region.
The EU is grappling with the aggressive stance of Russia, which threatens its borders, democracies, laws, and freedoms. Meanwhile, Europe’s relationship with the United States, a key ally within NATO, is becoming increasingly strained. Add to that the looming presence of an authoritarian China, looking for opportunities to expand its influence. Economic powerhouses like Germany are seeing their economies either shrink or stagnate.
The European Union is also facing a competitive disadvantage, struggling with insufficient capital investment, high debt levels, and a declining workforce. It’s falling behind in the race for advancements in AI and cutting-edge technologies. Migration remains a thorny, unresolved issue. Politically, a wave of hard-right populist parties is gaining ground from Sweden to Slovakia, shaking the continent’s core.
Responses to these challenges appear fragmented and lack cohesion. Many mainstream politicians acknowledge these issues but can’t agree on solutions. The supposed Franco-German leadership, represented by Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, seems to be faltering. Macron is considered ineffective, while Scholz faces possible removal from office. Meanwhile, the EU Commission, under the stewardship of Ursula von der Leyen, lacks the influence needed to steer the bloc effectively.
Some national leaders are capitalizing on these divisions for their gain. For instance, Italy’s hard-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, sought favor with Donald Trump at his inauguration, hoping to avoid trade penalties, highlighting disunity within the EU approach to the US. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán anticipates Trump’s influence assisting his populist agenda in Brussels.
Russia remains one of Europe’s most pressing concerns, especially as the conflict over Ukraine escalates. NATO has started naval patrols to counter Russian threats to undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic, reflecting growing tensions. Cyber-attacks, espionage, and aerial threats from the Kremlin have become routine. Russian interference in elections across European nations, from Georgia to Germany, is now commonplace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the Davos forum in Switzerland, urged Europe to fully grasp the threat Putin poses and suggested achieving energy independence from Moscow and boosting defense spending to 5% of GDP. He warned that Europe might find itself without influence in post-war negotiations concerning Ukraine.
However, Europe’s strategy in dealing with Russia seems vague. Poland and the Baltic states call for a more assertive approach, yet concrete actions remain sparse. Simultaneously, Trump’s impending trade war looms large, with European governments treading carefully in their statements, despite their disdain for outspoken individuals like Elon Musk.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized Trump and his powerful allies in the tech industry for using their influence to sway public discourse, intimidate governments, and undermine democracy. France’s François Bayrou warned that Europe risks being overshadowed if it doesn’t assert itself. “If we don’t do anything, our fate is very simple – we will be dominated,” Bayrou cautioned.
Trump’s “America First” policies have the potential not only to disrupt European trade, jobs, and security but also to clash with fundamental European values such as democracy, protection of minorities, and commitment to international legal frameworks and multilateral institutions.
Friedrich Merz, a German conservative poised to succeed Scholz in the upcoming months, believes in the importance of self-assurance. He commented, “If you make yourself appear like a dwarf, you will be treated as a dwarf.” As a strong supporter of Ukraine, Merz is determined to revitalize German leadership, emphasizing the bargaining power that comes with an EU market of 450 million people.
Von der Leyen is advocating for the EU’s economic role on the global stage, exploring business opportunities with nations like Mexico and Canada, who also face disputes with Trump. At Davos, she criticized China’s unfair state subsidies, especially in the electric car sector, and called for a balanced relationship centered on fairness and reciprocity. Implicitly, this stance should extend to Taiwan, human rights, and Chinese espionage concerns in Europe.
The way Europe navigates these crises and emerges in 2025 will largely hinge on the caliber and solidarity of its political leadership. Despite increasing public support for the EU and belief in its potential strength, leadership has been less than inspiring. In this era of intense geopolitical competition, it’s both surprising and ironic that public confidence is at an all-time high.
Almost 70% of Europeans see their continent as a bastion of stability amid global turmoil, and even British voters, reflecting ruefully, share this sentiment. There’s a growing desire for rapprochement with Europe and skepticism about the United States. Brexit supporters are also calling for a reset with Brussels.
Such findings offer some comfort. The more figures like Trump and others bluster and threaten, the more resilient Europe may become. As Tusk recently stated, “Europe is not yet lost… Raise your heads, Europeans. Europe was, is and will be great.”
Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s Foreign Affairs Commentator. If you have thoughts on the issues discussed, you can send a letter up to 250 words at [email protected] for potential publication.
