Editor’s Note: Alexander Green, our Chief Investment Strategist, views the world through a lens of "rational optimism." In a time filled with negative headlines, I genuinely value Alex’s balanced, data-driven outlook. Below, he walks us through a compelling 17 reasons why investors should look towards 2025 with a sense of hope. – James Ogletree, Managing Editor
Lately, I’ve been discussing two major reasons for my optimistic stance for 2025. The first centers around this incredible productivity surge happening in the U.S. Workers are achieving more with fewer resources. The second reason is the business-friendly strategies proposed by the incoming President, Donald Trump. We’re looking at potential tax cuts, deregulation, the introduction of Opportunity Zones, and a focus on minimizing government wastage. These could all fire up economic growth and boost corporate profits significantly.
Honestly, though, not everyone’s buying it. Some readers wrote in, expressing skepticism, saying my outlook doesn’t quite cut through America’s current challenges. Perhaps they are new here and might not know that I regularly highlight how the situation isn’t as grim as it’s made out to be.
Sure, millions might not reflect on the Biden years fondly. A slew of issues—from a poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, inflation peaks not seen in 40 years, the addition of $8.1 trillion in new debt, to challenges like the ongoing influx of undocumented immigrants along our Southern border, and debates about cognitive health—had quite the impact on voter perspectives, even influencing the presidential ticket.
However, contrary to the popular narrative—particularly amplified by media outlets—the state of our economy, our nation, and even the world isn’t as dire. Let me share a few illustrations:
The U.S. economy is admired by many globally, clocking a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter. Remarkably, it’s the only major economy doing better now than before the pandemic. Jobs are on the rise, so are wages. Inflation, while still high, is edging closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Unemployment sits near a 50-year low. The manufacturing sector is thriving with job numbers we haven’t seen since George W. Bush was in office. Notably, U.S. soldiers aren’t engaged in overseas conflicts right now.
Another positive stride is NATO’s increased strength as Sweden joined last year, with Finland following in 2023. Meanwhile, countries like Russia and Iran face struggles. Russia’s bogged down in Ukraine, losing a substantial number of soldiers daily. Iran’s regional proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have taken hits, and its ally Assad in Syria is facing decline.
Don’t let cable news fool you; America’s violent crime rate has actually dropped to its lowest in over five decades. Drug overdose fatalities fell by 17% in 2024, youth vaping is at its lowest in ten years, and the obesity epidemic has hit a plateau thanks to new injectable weight-loss medications. AI innovations are bringing down healthcare costs, enhancing diagnostic accuracy, and accelerating breakthroughs in drug research.
We’ve seen significant medical advancements: the FDA recently approved donanemab, a treatment for early Alzheimer’s, and a promising new cervical cancer therapy. The first personalized mRNA cancer vaccine is already in trial phases. Furthermore, people around the world are living longer, and extreme poverty has dropped from 36% in 1990 to a mere 9% today. U.S. carbon emissions are also on a downturn, now 17% below the levels recorded in 2005.
Certainly, the world isn’t devoid of serious issues. But investing requires a balanced view that appreciates positive currents amid the gloom. It’s worthwhile to pause now and then, realizing we are experiencing more longevity, safety, prosperity, and freedom than any previous era.
There’s much to celebrate economically in America. Last year, the Federal Reserve noted a record-high median household income and net wealth. The number of American millionaires has reached record levels. Corporate sales, earnings, profit margins, and share prices have soared, with the S&P 500 recorded at 57 all-time highs last year.
My key message? Yes, it’s easy to lament what’s lacking in the world. However, for those venturing into the stock market, acknowledging areas of progress is essential. There will always be hurdles but remember—sometimes, the prevailing trends can be favorable allies. Spotting and appreciating these trends is crucial for any savvy investor.
