When Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle inked the Elysée Treaty back in 1963, it marked a deeply poignant step towards postwar European unity. However, Emmanuel Macron doesn’t often dwell on the sentimental legacy of the Franco-German partnership that laid the foundations for the modern European Union. As the 60th anniversary of the treaty approached last year, Macron’s team noted that the French president views “joint European action as a geopolitical necessity, not a romantic notion.”
This pragmatic perspective, although perhaps lacking in inspiration, seems fitting for today’s climate. The partnership between France and Germany was once the driving force behind the EU’s single market and the creation of the euro. Yet, as Europe grapples with defining its role in an increasingly complex world, the core alliance isn’t as robust as it once was.
The solidarity between Paris and Berlin has been strained over the past three years, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Disagreements over military support for Kyiv, along with divergent responses to the global shift away from free trade amid China’s economic rise and potential U.S. tariffs, have surfaced. Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have failed to establish a mutual understanding, and as we look towards 2025, both nations face political turbulence and uncertainty.
In Germany, a surprise February election is a crucial moment for Scholz, whose SPD-led coalition has stumbled due to crises undermining Germany’s export-centric economic approach. By calling an early election, Scholz aims to address financial constraints—particularly, borrowing to counter the impacts of the pandemic, green transition subsidies, and the repercussions of Russia’s war. This pivot away from Germany’s traditional debt aversion is seen as necessary but controversial.
Domestic challenges are equally pressing. Scholz’s previous finance minister, Christian Lindner, was firm on strict spending caps, leaving the government financially constrained. This stagnation has fuelled public discontent, helping the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party rise in the polls. Scholz wants the election focus to be on economic recovery strategies, but a recent terror attack in Magdeburg, which AfD leader Alice Weidel quickly leveraged, suggests otherwise.
Similarly, financial turmoil is stirring France’s political waters. Michel Barnier set a record as the shortest-serving Fifth Republic prime minister after his austerity budget was blocked by parliament. The turmoil began with Macron’s unsuccessful decision to call an early parliamentary election, leaving the Assemblée in disarray and his government without a stable majority. Now, with a fourth prime minister in under a year, Macron is limping towards 2025. If François Bayrou, his latest choice for PM, cannot achieve what Barnier couldn’t, another election could be on the horizon, increasing the likelihood of a far-right triumph come 2027, or even sooner, should Macron step down.
This political turmoil couldn’t come at a worse time. While both countries struggle, they face the possibility of an America First presidency return that could further disrupt European business and weaken transatlantic security ties. Ironically, another Trump presidency might be the wake-up call Europe, particularly the faltering Franco-German axis, needs. Despite Macron’s blunders, including alienating the French left and placating Marine Le Pen’s controversial agenda, his weakened domestic standing is deserved. However, his diminishing influence across Europe would be a significant setback for the continent.
Germany has historically prioritised economic might post-WWII, while France has championed a broader vision for European unity beyond fiscal matters. Macron aligns with this tradition, and as Europe faces rising nationalism, economic stagnation, and renewed security mandates, his call for increased European integration should not be ignored.
In May, Macron made a historic state visit to Germany, highlighting the need for “massive investment” and advocating for a significant boost in EU spending on defence and green initiatives, suggesting shared borrowing methods akin to post-COVID recovery schemes.
Echoing this sentiment, former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi released an extensive report supporting significant investment, proposing thrice the annual investment seen in postwar recovery efforts. He stressed that the geopolitical and economic stakes for Europe are enormous.
This mindset is essential. As global economic structures realign with U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry at the forefront, Europe’s future in defence and green energy lies in achieving strategic autonomy—an ambition requiring unprecedented fiscal courage. The pivotal question remains whether Germany will breach its long-standing debt limits. Friedrich Merz, likely to emerge as Germany’s leader after elections, has already dismissed the idea of shared EU borrowing. Whether Macron can still sway this debate is uncertain.
Back in 1950, Robert Schuman, then French foreign minister, proposed the European Coal and Steel Community as a means to bond France and Germany economically, making future conflicts unthinkable. Now, as Europe faces another transformative era where old norms crumble, it stands once more at a crossroads. The path forward will inevitably pass through Paris and Berlin, but with the far right gaining momentum, the final destination remains worryingly unpredictable.
Do you have an opinion on the issues discussed in this article? If you’d like to submit a response of up to 300 words for potential publication in our letters section, please click here.
