Diplomacy is often regarded as the skill of achieving the impossible, and Ahmed al-Sharaa, the informal leader of Syria, has shown a remarkable ability to persuade and negotiate. Despite leading the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is labeled a terrorist organization by the US, UK, EU, and UN, Sharaa has managed to invite their officials to Damascus. His engaging talks with the US even led to the removal of a $10 million bounty on his head. In a move to signify change, he has dropped his alias, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and set aside his rebel attire to guide Syria away from over five decades of Assad rule.
These visits reflect a global interest in adjusting to Syria’s changing power landscape, but whether these will translate into tangible actions remains uncertain. The need for action is critical: over 90% of the Syrian population is struggling below the poverty line. More than 6 million people have left the country, while 7 million remain displaced within it. Sharaa’s goals include removing HTS from the terrorist list, gaining recognition for his interim government, and lifting the sanctions imposed during Bashar al-Assad’s time to facilitate rebuilding the nation.
In return, various international players have their own expectations. Several countries stress the importance of respecting minorities, upholding the rule of law, and forming an inclusive government. Yet, some have interests driven by self-gain. Russia aims to retain its military bases. The US acknowledges its 2,000 troops in Syria and seeks to weaken Iranian influence and combat Islamic State alongside Kurdish allies. Meanwhile, Turkey, which plans to relax restrictions on HTS, aims to counteract Kurdish groups and their aspirations for autonomy.
A stable Syria offers benefits beyond its borders. The return of refugees could help ease migration pressures on Turkey and Europe. However, as the UN wisely cautions, without meticulous planning and international backing, such efforts might reignite conflict in this war-torn nation. Ultimately, Damascus needs to focus on establishing lasting peace within a unified state. This necessitates the withdrawal of foreign powers, such as Israel, which has unlawfully occupied Syrian territory.
To gain genuine legitimacy, the Sunni HTS must convincingly demonstrate that it has abandoned its authoritarian and militaristic past. Alongside other rebel factions, it has been accused of human rights abuses, including torture and enforcing a “morality police.” Its governance in Idlib saw public unrest due to high taxes and inadequate services. In his work, The Age of Political Jihadism, Aaron Zelin questioned whether HTS leaders would ever willingly resign, face justice, and then retire. Although such outcomes seem improbable today, as HTS emerges from the wreckage of the Assad regime, it should address all past and present human rights violations.
Some Syrians worry that the new leadership might lean towards stringent religious and sectarian governance, potentially marginalizing women from the public arena. Sharaa is vigorously addressing these concerns by engaging with minority representatives and committing to mending a divided nation. He raises a valid point advocating for a reassessment of Syria’s political transition framework, which is currently dictated by a 2015 UN Security Council resolution. However, the constitution should be drafted by an elected assembly or a group that truly represents Syria’s diversity, not just a selected committee of allies with similar views. If he opts for the latter, he risks creating a constitution with as little respect from the Syrian people as the defunct one from the Assad era.
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