On Tuesday, the assassination of Russian general and conspiracy theorist Igor Kirillov in the heart of Moscow marked another in a series of morale-boosting operations by Ukraine and its supporters. Just last month, a senior naval officer named Valery Trankovsky was killed by a car bomb in Crimea. More recently, Sergei Yevsyukov, the former head of the Russian-controlled Olenivka prison, met a similar fate in Donetsk. This prison had been infamously destroyed by Russian forces in 2022, resulting in the deaths of many Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine had accused all three men of committing war crimes.
These targeted killings go beyond mere acts of revenge; they’re part of a broader strategy designed to demonstrate Ukraine’s steadfastness in the face of Russian hostility. While they aim to send a strong message to Moscow’s military leaders and offer a sliver of justice to Ukrainians outraged by Russian wartime atrocities, it’s uncertain how impactful such actions are. In regimes lacking clear paths to power transition, the removal of top officials can lead to instability. Leadership voids risk sparking internal power struggles and weakening the regime’s integrity.
At the level of generals and mid-level officers, however, this isn’t as problematic. Successions in these ranks are typically more straightforward, with ready replacements standing by. Figures like Kirillov often gain their status through loyalty rather than expertise, making them easily replaceable and not critical to battlefield outcomes. While any small victory is worth noting, it’s likely that Russia won’t grieve the loss of leaders like Kirillov for long.
The timing of these assassinations is key. With the potential shift in power in the United States looming—transitioning from a supportive yet indecisive Biden administration to a Trump presidency that leans pro-Russia—Ukraine appears to be hastening to gain any advantages it can.
Meanwhile, Russia finds itself in a precarious position. Its economy is wavering under the dual pressures of the ongoing war and Western sanctions. Military-driven wage hikes, affecting military personnel and defense industries that together employ about 5 million people, have set off a cycle of inflation and rising interest rates. Compounding this is a chronic worker shortage due to both an ageing population and the exodus of approximately 700,000 working-age individuals when the war began.
This combination of increased wages and interest rates has resulted in stagflation, stifling domestic investment and leaving businesses struggling to meet financial commitments or collect debts. The data indicates these conditions are triggering a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. Russia’s economic elites, frustrated by the situation, have resorted to making sexist remarks about Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, despite her being credited with Russia’s unexpected economic resilience. Yet they refrain from holding their leader, Vladimir Putin, accountable for these woes.
This reluctance to criticize Putin is no accident—it’s a feature of his governing model. Economic elites act as trustees, managing industries day-to-day but wield no influence over his political choices. Their privileged positions rest on their rapport with Putin; falling out of favor means being easily replaced by eager contenders. With Trump’s presidency on the horizon, they perceive a potential easing of their conditions.
Trump’s return to power is likely to be a pivotal moment in the conflict, one many believe won’t benefit Ukraine. Known for his isolationist views and ties to Putin, Trump has already indicated plans to reverse Biden’s authorization of US weapon usage in Russia. However, Trump’s strategies often disappoint. His peace proposals, like many of his policies, are vague, overlooking the reality that both parties prefer continued conflict over an unenforceable peace. Plus, depleted US weapon supplies limit his negotiating power; he cannot withhold weapons that weren’t being supplied, rendering his threats as hollow as his promises.
Ukraine has ample reason for concern. The assassinations provide a temporary distraction for a nervous populace, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy realizes the importance of acting before Trump takes office. Ukraine needs to cement stronger commitments from European allies, who might need to step up if the US withdraws support. Ultimately, Ukraine’s most promising path is self-reliance, investing in domestic weapons production, and exploiting Russia’s economic instability to its advantage.
