Stay on top of the latest happenings with free updates straight to your inbox. Just sign up for the German politics myFT Digest today!
Germany’s conservatives are gearing up for the February snap election with a strong focus on tax reductions and stricter measures against illegal immigration, as outlined in a draft manifesto reviewed by the Financial Times.
This 79-page manifesto pledges “new policies that will propel Germany forward. And our commitment is clear: we will make that a reality.”
Set to be officially revealed on Tuesday, the manifesto shows surprising consistency with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s policies, particularly regarding military support for Ukraine. However, when it comes to immigration, the conservatives are advocating for a much firmer stance compared to the outgoing administration. “We need to reclaim control over who comes to us and who is allowed to stay,” the document emphasizes.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU)—collectively known as the “Union”—are poised to win the election, having gained a significant lead in the polls over other parties.
The path to early elections was cemented last month after Scholz dismantled his coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and liberals. Now leading an SPD-Green minority government, Scholz is set to face a confidence vote in the Bundestag on Monday, which he is expected to lose. This would prompt the president to dissolve the legislature and call for early elections.
Championing an “agenda for hard-workers,” the CDU/CSU’s draft election program proposes income tax cuts for low and middle-income earners, a reduction in social security contributions, and gradually lowering corporate taxes to 25 percent from the current 30 percent.
The parties are also pushing to completely remove the “Soli,” an income tax surcharge introduced in the 1990s to fund German reunification. They plan to reinstate fuel subsidies for farmers, decrease value-added tax in the hospitality industry to 7 percent from the current 19 percent, and raise inheritance tax allowances.
However, it’s not clear how the Union intends to finance these tax cuts. They remain committed to the “debt brake,” Germany’s constitutional limit on new borrowing, which critics argue hampers necessary investments in defense, infrastructure, and the green transition. “Today’s debts become tomorrow’s taxes,” the manifesto cautions.
Despite their sharp critiques of Germany’s benefit system, the CDU/CSU does not propose major overhauls to the welfare state. They oppose cuts to state pensions and raising the retirement age. Instead, they support an “active pension” enabling workers past retirement age to earn up to 2,000 euros a month tax-free.
The draft suggests abolishing the Bürgergeld, or ‘citizen’s money,’ a welfare program rightwingers equate with universal basic income. They aim to replace it with a “new basic insurance” that would be withheld from those refusing job offers.
Breaking from the Greens and SPD, the CDU/CSU argues that nuclear energy should be an “option” for Germany, advocating research into small modular reactors and nuclear fusion. They also wish to reverse the prohibition on petrol and diesel vehicles.
In foreign policy, the Union pledges support for Ukraine through “diplomatic, financial, and humanitarian means, along with weapons supplies,” and stresses rekindling relations with France and Poland.
The parties propose that Germany allocate at least 2 percent of GDP to defense spending, implement mandatory service for young adults—though stopping short of reinstituting military conscription—and establish a national security council within the chancellery.
Under the Union’s proposed measures, law enforcement would gain the authority to turn back migrants at the border to “halt illegal immigration” and they would increase deportations. They also advocate for a “third state model” in the EU, where refugees would have their asylum applications processed outside the EU and be granted protection there.
Furthermore, they plan to repeal a law from the Scholz government that allows foreigners to apply for naturalization after five years in the country, including provisions for dual citizenship. “The German passport should represent the culmination of integration, not the beginning,” the manifesto proclaims.
