“I’m just waiting for the day we start hearing methane explosions like the ones in Russia,” remarks Mark Springer, a City Council Member from Bethel, Alaska. Not too long ago, he and his wife enjoyed picking summer berries along a trail through the tundra outside their riverside town in southwest Alaska. Unfortunately, that’s no longer an option as the area is now riddled with water-filled sinkholes, with flammable methane visibly bubbling on the surface.
This dangerous transformation is part of a phenomenon called “Arctic amplification,” which means Alaska is warming two to three times faster than the rest of the world. The result? Degradation of the permafrost that covers 85% of the state, threatening to unleash massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane—a greenhouse gas that’s 28 times more potent than CO2 in trapping heat.
A 2023 study by NASA, using aerial spectrometers, discovered around 2 million “hot spots” emitting more than 3,000 parts per million of methane, often in areas scorched by wildfires. For context, it’s worth noting that the current atmospheric carbon dioxide level of 420 parts per million is enough to cause significant global warming.
Regardless, the incoming Trump administration has plans to increase Alaska’s contribution to global heating while also potentially reducing our ability to monitor climate impacts. Proposed budget cuts and even the possible elimination of NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, key players in climate research, could limit our understanding of these changes. Moreover, Trump’s agenda includes scaling back on resources for the Department of Defense’s Center for Arctic Security Studies, which evaluates climate impacts on national security.
Following the recent election, on November 8, Donald Trump released a social media video highlighting his first-term achievements in opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for energy development, progressing towards reopening the Tongass National Forest, and emphasizing the construction of a state-sponsored gas pipeline—all moves aimed at exploiting Alaska’s rich resources.
According to Alaska’s Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy, Trump values the state’s oil, gas, mining, and timber as national assets. Though he personally doubts the role of carbon emissions in climate change, Dunleavy is open to selling carbon offsets linked to unlogged forests in Alaska.
While many Americans might resist significant wilderness destruction for resource extraction, a number of Alaskans, alongside their congressional representatives, argue it’s essential for their economy. With 65% of Alaska managed by federal agencies and an additional 11% by Native Alaskans, the debate intertwines national interests and Native sovereignty.
Trump’s administration is expected to revoke bans and restrictions on oil and gas leases set by the Biden administration in regions like ANWR and the National Petroleum Reserve. ConocoPhillips’ Willow Project, previously approved for 400,000 acres, might expand to 800,000 acres, potentially sparking new exploration efforts over 1.6 million acres near Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge.
Trump has supported the longstanding proposal for an $44-billion, 800-mile natural gas pipeline stretching from Prudhoe Bay to the Kenai Peninsula, despite challenges. The Anchorage Daily News opined on November 30 that without eager private investment, this risky endeavor remains financially untenable, especially considering its potential to triple the state’s carbon emissions.
Expect Trump to back initiatives like renewed logging in the 17-million-acre Tongass National Forest and a new road across the Brooks Range, intended to facilitate copper mining. There’s also a proposal for an open-pit gold mine at the Kuskokwim River’s headwaters, vital for the subsistence of over 30 Native villages.
However, it’s uncertain if Trump will endorse a Canadian-led copper and gold mining project that threatens salmon habitats in southeast Alaska. Interestingly, during his first term, Trump halted a similar venture, the Pebble Mine near Bristol Bay, influenced by his son and an advisor who favored protecting the lucrative salmon fishery.
Seventeen-year-old Ch’eelil Peter, a Gwich’in and Diné resident of Arctic Village, is among young plaintiffs in a lawsuit challenging the natural gas pipeline. She argues passionately that it endangers their constitutional rights to life and natural resources. Standing outside the courthouse, she observed the climate change firsthand, lamenting the absence of snow in Anchorage and the scarcity of fish in the Yukon River.
Meanwhile, fellow plaintiff Cecily Shavelson, 14, from Homer, vows to fight until meaningful change is achieved, echoing a sentiment shared by her younger sister, Lila, who questions why state attorneys choose to argue against their future.
Alaska stands on the brink as the most climate-sensitive state, with thawing permafrost releasing methane, a potential “climate bomb.” The Biden administration’s moderate energy policies in the region have pleased no one. President-elect Trump, dismissing climate change as a massive hoax, seems poised to unleash this ticking time bomb with his aggressive energy plans.
David Helvarg, the author, is the executive director of Blue Frontier, an organization focused on ocean policy, and also co-hosts the “Rising Tide: The Ocean Podcast.”
