Democrats, it’s time to shift focus from the last election because the challenges ahead might be even tougher. Believe it or not, the pressing issue isn’t related to hot topics like immigration, inflation, or political personalities; it’s something as mundane yet crucial as the figures on a spreadsheet. These numbers tell the story of how over seven million Americans are on the move from one state to another in 2023. My colleague, Binyamin Appelbaum, who’s immersed in economic analysis at The New York Times, delved deep into two decades of data hidden in this spreadsheet and uncovered a trend that should concern every Democrat.
What’s happening is a mass exodus from traditionally Democratic states like California, New York, and Illinois, with these folks heading to Republican strongholds such as Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The allure for some is newly available manufacturing jobs or thriving finance and tech sectors. But for many, it’s simply about educators, law enforcement officers, dentists, and everyday people seeking a more affordable lifestyle. Blue states are attracting new residents too, but the influx is modest compared to the exodus. Over the past 20 years, there’s been a net shift of nine million more people leaving blue states for red ones.
This trend spells trouble for Democrats mainly because it impacts the Electoral College. A state’s population size dictates its number of Electoral College votes. Fast forward to the 2030 national census, and if these migration trends persist, brace yourself for the changes: California could lose four votes, New York three, Illinois two, with other Democratic strongholds like Minnesota, Oregon, and Rhode Island each losing one. Those votes don’t disappear—they shift to the red states these individuals are heading to, potentially depriving Democrats of 12 crucial Electoral College votes. This reallocation will hold fast for ten years until the subsequent census, thereby redefining the political landscape.
Imagine a scenario where your 2032 candidate matches Kamala Harris’s state wins, yet ends up with only 214 votes rather than the previous 226. Unlike the Democratic hopes of past decades that population shifts would turn red states purple, the reality is that Texas and Florida have only grown stronger in their red designation.
Sure, much could change in the next five years leading to the census. However, efforts must start with blue states making themselves more livable. People still desire the appeal of living in California and New York, but they’re deterred by the soaring costs. If Democratic governors wish to avert a ten-year drought in electoral influence, they must prioritize making these states affordable places to live.
