After much anticipation, this week marked a significant milestone as Bitcoin finally surged past the 100K mark, a target that many Bitcoin enthusiasts and bullish investors have been patiently waiting for. Now that we’ve hit this key level, the question becomes: what happens next?
For those familiar with my work, you’ll know that I take an impartial stance when discussing cryptocurrencies or ETFs in my Weekly Studies. I don’t hold any personal positions in the assets I analyze, and there’s a good reason for this. Keeping my opinions free from personal bias ensures that I provide clear and objective technical analysis.
The excitement around Bitcoin hitting 100K wasn’t just about the number itself. While technically, “round number” resistance isn’t a standalone reason for technical analysis focus, it signifies a psychological milestone. Investors often set these round numbers as mental checkpoints—places where they decide, for example, “I’ll start selling when Bitcoin hits 100K” or “It’s time to take some profits.”
When discussing resistance and support levels, it’s important to understand their complexity. These can include previous price pivots, Fibonacci retracement levels, and areas where buyers and sellers have interacted intensely, influencing future price movements. They might also involve trend resistance or support from trend lines, or even the Cloud model. A combination of these factors makes a resistance level much more significant than simply a psychological number.
Earlier this week, before Bitcoin broke the symbolic 100K barrier, I shared a chart on social media with my technical notes. I outlined what seemed to be the preferred Elliott Wave count, suggesting a Wave 2 correction was happening after the completion of Wave 1 that began from October’s lows. At one point, I anticipated a 38.2% retracement of Wave 3 might be tested. Yet the market’s underlying strength proved greater than expected, as the price briefly dipped below the Lower Parallel but swiftly recovered, surpassing the 100K mark, and is now poised to test the Median Line of the Schiff Pitchfork.
My concerns about the ongoing rally continue. Although we remain in positive territory, indicators like the MACD are trending below their signal lines, and the Stochastic Momentum Index appears indecisive. The Sweet Sixteen Momentum/Breadth Oscillator showed a lower high last Sunday and fell below its 13-Day SMA. If Bitcoin can break and close above the Median Line, it would provide more confidence that the 2-week sideways correction has ended, with the next target potentially around 104,400—slightly above Thursday’s highs.
For a deeper dive, check out this week’s Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study, available to my subscribers this Sunday.
